The Rule of Thirds? at Blog P.I.

The Rule of Thirds?

Published by Not Paul Begala on February 7, 2007 in Barack Obama, Fundraising, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. 3 Comments

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The WSJ [subscription required] pegs the number at $30 million for Hillary Clinton’s first quarter fundraising.

The strategy in the expectations game is always to lowball your own figures and highball everybody else’s. Howard Wolfson set Edwards at $20 million and Obama at $40 million, so they figure neither will hit that goal and HRC will easily surpass her opponents.

But openly admitting to $30 million is a big sign for the insiders. That would be one third of the so-called opening bar price of $100 million that the media expect of a presidential campaign.

Compare that to the Casey-Santorum Pennsylvania Senate race, which was one of the longest, most expensive races of 2006. Their combined spending topped out atabout $41 million.

HRC’s people are nothing if not calculating and goal-driven. I’ll bet you they are shooting higher than one-third. My guess? Hillary gets within $4 million of that — and I’m not sure I would limit it to $4 million under.

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3 Responses to “The Rule of Thirds?”

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1 Lake_Michigan
Feb 8th, 2007 at 9:56 am

$30M = $15M (transfer in) $15M new?
2 Lake_Michigan
Feb 8th, 2007 at 9:57 am

That should read:

$30M = $15M (transfer from FoH) $15M (new HCfP funds)?
3 Not Paul Begala
Feb 8th, 2007 at 10:41 am

Lake, thank you for pointing out my mistake. I had forgotten about her senate account.

I think that almost guarantees her hitting 40 in the quarter.

To clarify, I was not counting on a senate transfer. She’ll hit 15 million new without blinking. I think her goal is 35 and above, her fundraisers have been bragging.

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