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Archive for the 'National Review' Category

Krauthammer’s Forgotten Column

Charles Krauthammer is one of the country’s most influential conservative thinkers, indeed one of the country’s most influential newspaper columnists. Right?

When I was on Bloggingheads a few weeks ago, I briefly mentioned a then-recent Krauthammer column that caught my attention and made me think hard about current U.S. (and European) policy toward Iran vis-à-vis its nuclear (weapons) program. I thiink it’s important enough to quote at length. Here’s how it began:

The era of nonproliferation is over. During the first half-century of the nuclear age, safety lay in restricting the weaponry to major powers and keeping it out of the hands of rogue states. This strategy was inevitably going to break down. The inevitable has arrived. …

The EU-3 negotiations (Britain, France and Germany) [with Iran] went nowhere. Each U.N. Security Council resolution enacting what passed for sanctions was more useless than the last. Uranium enrichment continues.

When Iran’s latest announcement that it was tripling its number of centrifuges to 9,000 elicited no discernible response from the Bush administration, the game was over. Everyone says Iran must be prevented from going nuclear. No one will bell the cat.

Krauthammer acknowledges, remarkably but rationally, that Iran will get its nuclear weapons whether we try to bribe them to do otherwise or not. And thanks in part to the pyrrhic invasion of Iraq and as well to North Korea’s development of WMD, preemption “is spent.” This is a huge concession from one of the standard-bearers of the political philosophy popularly, if somewhat erroneously, termed neoconservatism. So what to do?

Begin by making the retaliatory threat in response to Iranian nuclear aggression so unmistakable and so overwhelming that the non-millenarians in leadership would stay the hand or even remove those taking their country to the point of extinction. …

For the sake of argument, imagine a two-layered anti-missile system in which each layer is imperfect, with, say, a 90 percent shoot-down accuracy. That means one in 100 missiles gets through both layers. That infinitely strengthens deterrence by radically degrading the possibility of a successful first strike. Even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might refrain from launching an arsenal of, say, 20 nukes if his scientific advisers showed him that there was only an 18.2 percent chance of any getting through — and a 100 percent chance that a retaliatory counterattack of hundreds of Israeli (and/or American) nukes would reduce the world’s first Islamic republic to a cinder.

Of course, one can get around missile defense by using terrorists. But anything short of a hermetically secret, perfectly executed, multiple-site attack would cause terrible, but not existential, destruction. The retaliatory destruction, on the other hand, would be existential.

This is hardly dovish, promising Iran that nuclear devastation of Israel (or any other ally) would mean the destruction of Iran — in effect, we would tell Iran that Israel’s safety is now very much in its interest.

But it’s also not quite what you’d expect from one of the strongest supporters of the Iraq war. My left-leaning roommate called it “uncharacteristically sharp and honest for him.” Maybe, just maybe, that’s part of the problem.

Because the column sank like a stone.

Krauthammer’s column regularly appears on more than one website, and when I searched then and again tonight, I found very little pickup. At WashingtonPost.com, the highest-profile of all, it received just 21 linkbacks from the blogosphere. At the high-traffic NRO.com, there were only 4 linkbacks. And at the lesser-read Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (at least some subset of Blog P.I. readers will probably find this association ironic) it was a whopping zero. (Of course, this post will bump each up by one.) Compare to his most recent column, taking a familiar position against cap-and-trade, which picked up 59 linkbacks just from its appearance on WashingtonPost.com.

No major blog, liberal or conservative, gave his Iran column any serious thought. The only sustained discussion of the column was at the mid-level left-leaning blog Foreign Policy Watch, which simply disagreed with his premise:

Of course, one of the larger concerns surrounding the prospect of North Korea’s failure to disarm and the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran is that they could inspire balancing, follow-on nuclear programs elsewhere in their immediate regions. But it’s not inevitable that this will happen. Nor is it inevitable, for that matter, that North Korea won’t see its disarmament obligations through to the very end, or that Iran is racing toward nuclear weapons acquisition and there is nothing capable of preventing this outcome. Such fatalism is misguided, to say the least, and would lead to very poor policy if taken seriously. …

That is not to say there aren’t potent concerns for the future of antiproliferation efforts; there are. But to translate this into such sweeping pessimism, going so far as to say “the era of nonproliferation is over,” is intellectually lazy and politically dangerous, particularly if it means adopting purely defensive responses as opposed to vigorous preventive diplomacy designed to blunt such outcomes in the first place.

Maybe they’re right and Krauthammer is wrong. But considering the perceived admission against interest, one would think this column would spark more debate.

Conceding that Iran will succeed in developing nuclear weapons is clearly an unpopular position to take, no matter which political party you belong to. The national consensus, international consensus even, is that Iran must be dissuaded from developing a nuclear arsenal. There are disagreements about how to do it, but the argument that “the era of nonproliferation is over” is clearly something that no one wants to hear.

What’s the Matter with Conservative Journalism?

The cover story of the New York Times Magazine this weekend is either called “The End of Republican America?” or “A Case of the Blues,” depending on whether you look at the cover (whence the image below right comes) or the online version. The author, Benjamin Wallace-Wells, spent some time with NRCC chairman Tom Cole and catalogues the myriad, perhaps insuperable, challenges facing the House GOP as it tries not simply to win back seats lost in 2006, but stave off yet more losses this cycle.

It’s certainly a legitimate article, if not exactly a groundbreaking one, and I have no particular complaints about it. But I did find myself wondering: Couldn’t they have found a reporter from a conservative background to write this story?

Deflated elephant from New York Times MagazineIn his day job, Wallace-Wells writes for Rolling Stone (as Ben, actually) where the tone of coverage is anything but sympathetic to Republicans. Before that he wrote for the left-leaning Washington Monthly.

So, to answer the question above: Yes, they probably could have. Not that anyone would expect it. Nor does the Times Magazine have a graduate of National Review writing about the Democrats. That’s Matt Bai, and his previous job was — perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not so much — Rolling Stone.

And it’s not just the Times Magazine; there is in fact a dearth of experienced, right-leaning feature reporters who write for mainstream magazines and newspapers. The mastheads of Time and Newsweek are filled with reporters who graduated from left-aligned publications. The New Republic is another example, but the Washington Monthly may have no rival as a journalist factory. Among the many former staffers who populate the list of Contributing Editors, here are just the ones I know currently write for major newspapers or magazines:

    Jonathan Alter, Katherine Boo, Matthew Cooper, Michelle Cottle, James Fallows, Joshua Green, Michael Kinsley, Nicholas Lemann, Jon Meacham, Timothy Noah, Joseph Nocera, David Segal, Walter Shapiro, Amy Sullivan, Nicholas Thompson, Steven Waldman, Wallace-Wells, Robert Worth

That doesn’t even include Joshua Micah Marshall, who has set up a viable and valuable media company of his own. (Full disclosure: I once wrote an article for the Monthly; Sullivan was my editor and made it a much better piece.)

Conservatives grouse that the writers and editors at the national magazines lean left, and there is definitely some truth to that. Not to a man and woman, and this does not mean their reporting follows the Democratic Party line, but it does have consequences on which stories are covered and how they are covered. But I think the lessons learned are wrong, or at best incomplete.

Wikipedia and Conservapedia logosThe reaction is usually to set up an alternative forum which is defined as being explicitly conservative. The problem is that these alternative organizations often operate inside a bubble which their “liberal” counterparts do not. This can be the case beyond journalism as well. On the web we can see this very clearly: The non-partisan but in some ways “liberal” Wikipedia has been answered by the conservative-minded, low-quality Conservapedia.

You could see this in journalism when, last month, new Washington Times editor John Solomon brought the newspaper’s style book closer in line with the standards at every other daily broadsheet in America. Some on the right yelped that this was giving in to the “reigning liberal sensibilities.” But this gets it exactly backwards: instead of “liberal” coming to mean “neutral,” these conservatives are letting “neutral” come to mean “liberal.”

For the record, among the “liberal” sensibilities to which Solomon’s paper succumbed: calling Hillary Clinton “Clinton” rather than the more personal “Hillary” and referring to “illegal immigrants” instead of the antagonistic “illegal aliens.”

The liberal tilt of mainstream newspapers and magazines certainly has something to do with the professional networks within which editors find writers for their stories. But it also has something to do with conservative journalists rarely operating outside their zone of comfort. And especially in magazine articles, they tend to add commentary to existing stories rather than going out and finding new ones.

This is how it works: Liberals get reporting jobs. Conservatives get opinion columns. Look at the Newsweek masthead, liberal Jonathan Alter does indeed have an opinion column, but his full title is Senior Editor and Columnist. George Will is just Columnist. The columnist can make overt arguments the way a reporter cannot, but the columnist’s words are also unmistakably opinions. But decisions that go into how a story is reported are the product of a reporters’ opinions, too. These biases are not always obvious. (And it’s worth noting, there are many other biases besides political outlook in play.)

Conservatives’ railing against the New York Times for being liberal has some salutary effects, and certainly creates some new jobs. A few years ago, Bill Kristol admitted this was “working the refs” (not his phrase). And look: today Kristol himself is a New York Times columnist.

Byron York’s Vast Left Wing ConspiracyUp to a point, there is a structural bias to the newspaper industry. This can be summed up in three words: “Woodward and Bernstein.” Oftentimes journalists look for something that needs to be fixed by the government. Right-minded individuals, to use an intentionally tendentious phrasing, do not clamor to fix every last societal ill. But then, why doesn’t the right of center dominate investigations into the abuse of government powers? Surely this has a lot to do with Republicans holding a lot of government power for a long time. But then Reason magazine, which is certainly right of center on economic issues, is mostly a lifestyle magazine. It’s Slate for libertarians, with a print edition.

One exception that comes to mind is Byron York. He is not the only reporter at National Review, but he is the only one whose articles include a dateline. His 2005 book “The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy” was a detailed look at how the left has set up its own alternative apparatii in response to conservative ones. Nothing against Wallace-Wells, but York too would have been an excellent choice to write a story about the NRCC’s misfortunes.

Which raises a question conservatives should be asking themselves: If the left builds itself a successful activist structure mirroring that of the right (and to a large extent, they already have) while maintaining a soft grip on ostensibly non-aligned political media institutions, what kind of position will the conservative movement be in then?

When one says “conservative journalist,” too often this means “columnist,” not “reporter.” If the right can fix this, they’ve got a chance.

All Your Headlines Are Belong to Atrios

I am an unabashaed Memeorandum fan and booster, and in the past I have said: I would praise the “impressive signal-to-noise ratio, but the fact is, there’s no noise.”

But as of late Friday/early Saturday, this is the top story:

Bizarre Atrios headline on Memeorandum

Actual header on the HuffPo report:

Bill Kristol To Become New York Times Columnist In 2008

Atrios is listed first among “Sites Linking to This Page…” so that probably has something to do with the mishap, though it doesn’t actually explain it. As for “Jesus H. Christ,” your guess is as good as mine. Same for the “(2)” bit, whatever that refers to.

Here’s the Atrios post linking, for what it’s worth:

Your Liberal Media

Publishing lying conservative psychopaths since I can remember.

No Jesus there, nor at HuffPo.

I’m sure whatever this is will be fixed before long, but it suggests a problem for Gabe Rivera’s meme-tracker (and its sister sites) in the near future: as blogs continue to be added to the Memeorandum list, and those sites change trade in their simple CMSs for more elaborate ones, Memeorandum could get noisier.

For awhile now I’ve noticed an existing issue where authors of posts are sometimes misidentified — especially blogs at National Review Online, where even posts on Jim Geraghty’s Campaign Spot are often listed simply as “NationalReview.com” and attributed to Katherine Jean Lopez. I searched the December Memeorandum archives for an example, but came up empty, so you’ll have to take my word for the moment. My impression is that posts on The Corner are properly attributed, but the other NRO blogs are not.

Don’t get me wrong, Memeorandum is still the best gauge of what’s happening in the political blogosphere right now, but it isn’t 100%. It is still something like 99%, and I hope it stays at least that good.

Update: Gabe responds in the comments:

Thanks William. Made a manual fix after your post tripped one of my alerts. Not sure what the underlying problem was…I’m not able to reproduce it. Hope it doesn’t happen again. I guess this shows days go by when I don’t even look at memeorandum. That is definitely the case. As for the bigger picture, notwithstanding this, I think my system is always improving at extracting headlines, bodies etc. There has always been an error rate, and it’s being gradually reduced, but will always be non-negligible.