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Archive for the 'Midterms '06' Category

What If They Held a Federal Election and No One Noticed?

Last night Republicans retained two House seats in special elections called to replace members who passed away earlier this year. This morning, Captain Ed led his recap with the observation:

Had the Republicans lost their two special election contests to replace deceased GOP House members, one would see the papers filled with analyses of the coming debacle for Republican hopes in 2008. Now that they have won both handily, expect most to either ignore the races altogether or chalk up the wins to local Republican strength.

Indeed, about the closer-watched Ohio election the Washington Post merely ran an AP story on A02; the Viriginia story ran on B05 in the Metro section. Neither buried, but neither featured. Had Weirauch had won, the anti-Republican mood of ‘06 would seem to be continuing. So it’s kind of funny where the Post chose to cut off the wire report:

But Democrats had high hopes about Weirauch’s chances against the younger Latta. This was her third run for the House, and last year, against Gillmor, she received the biggest share of the vote — 43 percent — of any Democrat in the district’s history.

I noticed the same dearth of barking from the blogs, too. Here’s everything the Memeorandum algorithm deemed significant this morning:

Memeorandum recap of December 2007 special elections

And the whole story was off the page by the beep of twelve.

Daily Kos featured just one recap of the special election, which seemed very bitter even after explaining how the NRCC had spent a big chunk of its cash on hand:

The Republicans are still trying to pretend that 2006 was an aberration. Yet they have to go all-out, it seems, to hold the ground they already have.

Yes, I was hoping for a better performance in this district. Yes, I’m disappointed.

Meanwhile, the RNC’s Jason Richardson said nyah in a post for GOP.com and at RedState, focused not on the party committees, but on the extra-party support apparatus:

Weirauch had heavy support from the DCCC, Daily Kos, Act Blue, Nancy Pelosi, Charlie Rangel, Harry Reid, and EMILY’s LIST. We were severely out-manned in Ohio and Virginia and this is what they have to show for it? We came to the game to win. All in all, the liberal blogosphere should take heed: You’re not as powerful as you think and it’s about results not PR.

To be sure, these were retentions and the Virginia election was never much of a contest. But the Ohio race between Republican Bob Latta and Democrat Robin Weirauch was a focal point of both parties in recent weeks, with both parties’ house committees pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the district. Online, Slatecard and Big Red Tent both spotlighted the race and sent out fundraising pleas; Slatecard raised $1,908 from 21 supporters. Meanwhile Weirauch apparently collected more than $93,000 from ActBlue, some $15,600 raised by the Daily Kos/Open Left-backed Blue Majority and $12,300 by Wesley Clark’s WesPAC.

One race was obviously a dud and the other would prove to be one, too. It’s hard to nationalize a special election, and there was no Paul Hackett. In fact, there was barely an Iraq debate — though the Democrat in the Viriginia race, Philip Forgit, was an Iraq veteran. So the leftroots raised more money, but the rightroots (if not Rightroots) ended up with the win. But neither the leftosphere nor rightosphere owns this win or loss. This race just wasn’t won or lost online. And if it was a status quo election, Republicans have to be pleased with that.

Update: I somehow managed to miss Eric Pfeiffer’s understated observation, posted just after the beep-beep of twelve-thirty:

Bloggers Respond With Restraint to Yesterday’s OH/VA Special Elections

At least.

Oppo Knocks?

Anybody who watched the Virginia Senate race this year knows that Senator-elect Jim Webb ran a savvy Internet campaign. He hired bloggers, leveraged YouTube, played bloggers and the press off each other and off soon-to-be former Sen. George Allen.

But we may just now be learning how savvy his campaign really was: Last evening, conservative Virginia blogger Shaun Kenney posted this unsourced but possibly legitimate report:

If you are a Virginia blogger, chances are that the Webb campaign has an opposition research book on you. Bloggers that made the cut include Chad Dotson, Jim Hoeft, Ben Tribbett, Waldo Jaquith, Josh Chernila, Lowell Feld, Jim Riley, J.C. Wilmore, Jon Henke, and a host of others. These are not your typical background checks either… a significant amount of money was spent crafting the kind of opposition research one would typically find on a candidate running for public office. It seems as if the Webb campaign made a strategic decision to unleash this opposition research if something damaging came out against their candidate, simply to personally slander the blogger making the claim.

Slander might not be the right word here; assuming the dirt was true, “smear” would probably cover it just fine. Many of Kenney’s commenters wanted proof. None has surfaced as yet, but they did get the next best thing in an apparent confirmation from liberal Virginia blogger Ben Tribbett, who is Not Larry Sabato:

What I have been told by some reliable sources is that Shaun’s report is very close to reality. However, I am hearing that the list of bloggers researched is “smaller” than Shaun’s list, while the amount of information compiled on those bloggers chosen is “very large” … The staff involved can not keep their story straight. One person pointed out they had a report done on them, and we should feel complimented, and another denied any such thing existed. I’m hearing “yes” on J.C. Wilmore, Jon Henke, myself and Lowell Feld, and working on confirmation on others. If this list stays slanted to the Democrats, we can assume these reports were generated for potential retribution instead of proactive research.

That bloggers in opposing political camps are giving credence to the story is what makes it credible, and the Webb campaign targeting bloggers in opposing political camps is what makes it interesting. (There is another reason why this story is notable, and we’ll get to it shortly.) Of course, let me add that right now this story remains purely a rumor. Repeat: There is no actual evidence to support these claims, only the integrity of the bloggers involved. End disclaimer.

It might come as a minor revelation that political campaigns would look into the backgrounds of bloggers who oppose them, but as long as the oppo research stays on safe legal ground, there’s nothing particularly controversial here. But what of the supposed research into Webb’s allies — and employees? Feld heads up Virginia’s biggest liberal blog, Raising Kaine, and was employed by Webb as netroots coordinator. Why on Earth would he want to risk alienating his chief ally in the blogosphere?

Easy: To protect himself. Everybody who follows politics at least casually knows about oppo research, but the flip-side of that seamy-but-crucial campaign activity is what’s called self-research.

It shouldn’t be too surprising that the Webb campaign would do this, if they did this. Recent history gives us good reason to assume that politicians are wary of bloggers, certainly more so than traditional volunteers (who do not make a point of expressing their opinions in public).

Recall not just the blackface controversy in this year’s CT SEN race — after which Ned Lamont unconvincingly blurted to reporters: “I don’t know anything about the blogs” — but also the infamous “screw them” moment in 2004, where then-rising blog star Markos Moulitsas callously dismissed the deaths of American contractors in Iraq.

Some Virginia bloggers assume this research might have been used for character assassination, but what’s more likely is the Dem-side research was done to decide whether to hire Feld in the first place, and whether to associate with other bloggers. Do we really expect that a Senate campaign wouldn’t do this kind of due diligence?

There is certainly some political risk in doing so; bloggers often don’t like being part of “poltics as usual,” and that’s certainly what this is. If Webb really was cagey enough to research not just his opponent’s allied bloggers but his own as well, many think that would put him over the line from “shrewd” to “paranoid.” Indeed, it would be highly cynical of Webb to imagine that Feld might turn around and start attacking him before the race concluded. But it’s less cynical to think that someone not on his payroll — Tribbett, Jaquith, Wilmore — might do so. In politics, cynicism pays. And where it comes to the blogosphere, right now every campaign is making it up as they go along.

Wilmore, who writes The Richmond Democrat, does not think that this is necessarily Webb’s doing:

I don’t think this story is about Jim Webb. I think it’s about Jessica Vanden Berg, and it seems to me that this is really two stories.

The first story is that the Webb campaign did oppo research on Republican opposition bloggers. To me this only makes sense. Members of Allen’s “A-Team” and “B-Team” had certainly injected themselves into the political process and were fair game. For my part, I know for a fact that I was oppo’d by the Allen campaign. I have no complaints on that score …

The second story is where the controversial part of this incident lies. Did Jessica Vanden Berg authorize opposition research on prominent Democratic bloggers who were allied to (and in some cases employed by) the Webb campaign? Were research dossiers or “books” compiled on some of Webb’s key supporters? It’s an important question. It implies that we were considered threats to the Webb campaign, which is odd, because most of us were involved, to some degree or another, in getting the Webb campaign off the ground. …

No, it seems unlikely to me that we were perceived as a threat to Jim Webb. But were we a threat to Jessica Vanden Berg? Were we were oppo’d for that reason? Did Vanden Berg — feeling threatened by the dialogue occurring on our blogs — authorize oppo research on us to shore up her own position within the campaign?

He followed up, e-mailing Vanden Berg for confirmation or denial. And a denial he got:

We don’t have an opposition research on you. We don’t have any opposition research books on any people who blog.

And that’s what also makes this story interesting. This denial rules out more than just oppo on Jaquith, Wilmore, Feld, Tribbett and other Webb supporters, but Allen’s A-Team members including Dotson, Riley and others. The Webb camp didn’t do any research on anyone who blogged the campaign? Not even on Henke — a paid adviser to the Allen campaign?

This answer is either untenable or too revealing. Maybe they weren’t so savvy after all — perhaps we’re only finding out that they were lucky.

In any case, this one started in the blogosphere, but if these questions are to be resolved, the MSM just might have to step in.

P.S. Henke has published his own oppo file, to the best that he can recall:

When I was about 5 years old, I stole a quarter from a girl named Jennifer Weidler. It was a Bicentennial quarter, which I thought it was very cool-looking. I’ve always regretted that.

P.P.S. It’s also worth noting that Tribbett is no fan of Vanden Berg’s, though it may be immaterial to the facts in this case.

P.P.P.S. Also worth noting, a contributor to Raising Kaine, not Feld, added today:

My sources at the campaign are saying this simply isn’t true.

He probably means transition team, as the campaign has concluded. That said, it would be nice to know how many sources each blogger is citing, and which of them actually worked with Vanden Berg.

The Other Truth About Hillary

When the universally-panned trashy tell-all “The Truth About Hillary” hit bookshelves last year, one amusing sidelight was the fact that author Edward Klein is the pseudonymous author of “Walter Scott’s Personality Parade” in Parade, the semi-glossy Sunday insert that appears in virtually every newspaper in the country not owned by Gannett.

The book made a number of dubiously-sourced allegations about the Clintons’ private lives, most of which were recycled, while the new ones were so outrageous even the Clintons’ most hardy detractors took exception. The book failed, Hillary’s career survived, and that was that.

However, Klein has now revisited his subject — and appears to have changed his tune. Having exhausted the rest of today’s Washington Post, I picked up today’s Parade from the stack, and found in the latest “Personality Parade”:

Q: How does the Democratic Party’s takeover of the House and Senate affect Hillary Clinton’s chances of getting the 2008 Presidential nomination?—Daniel O., Los Angeles, Calif.

A: Judging by the large number of moderate and conservative Democrats who won last month, it looks like Senator Clinton and her party are moving in the same direction: toward the political center. (Another indication: Sen. Russ Feingold, a leading liberal, dropped out of the 2008 presidential race.) Being on the same wavelength as her party should make it easier to secure the nomination.

I’m not sure what to do with this, if anything. After all, who looks to Parade for political advice? People who read Parade on a regular basis, I suppose.

For one thing, I am certain that many on the left, particularly those in the blogosphere, will disagree with the notion that the Democratic party is moving significantly toward the center. The “large number” of moderates and conservatives is simply wrong; for every Heath Shuler there’s a Sherrod Brown, and district by district results aren’t always the best indicator of which direction the party is going. Look instead to the leadership and the committee chairs — such as impeachment-itchy House Judiciary chairman John Conyers, resolutely anti-war Senate Armed Services chairman Carl Levin and soon-to-be Madame Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And I am certain that many on the left, particularly those in the blogosphere, will not think they move away from the center enough.

Additionally, Feingold’s withdrawal says nothing of the sort. It says a lot more about the fact that he would be an issue candidate beloved of bloggers but not fundraisers or primary state activists. Last year he divorced his wife, which didn’t help things any. Meanwhile Dennis Kucinich — newly remarried and even further to the left — is probably going to run again, not that he has a chance either.

The “Walter Scott” column does suggest one other thing: Despite his own portrayal of Sen. Clinton as a radical lesbian feminist, when he’s not trying to sell books, Edward Klein doesn’t even believe himself.

Where The Campaign Blog Ends

A few days ago we counted up the dollars spent by federal campaigns and earned by their respective bloggers/new media consultants — so for this post, following the final concession/victory speeches of the campaign (George Allen and Jim Webb respectively), I thought it would be interesting to run through snapshots of the campaign blogs covered then. The results are telling.

First up, Allen’s late-starting and now late official blog, Allen HQ, written by Jon Henke. Though Allen conceded yesterday afternoon, his campaign blog is still under the impression that V must be GOT:

George Allen Campaign Blog

Joe Lieberman’s victory was apparent on election night itself, and his campaign blog reflected the fact:

Joe Lieberman Campaign Blog A

But when you click through…

Joe Lieberman Campaign Blog B

Huh? That’s it? (Actually, this isn’t a big surprise — Olly pointed out several weeks ago that Lieberman’s blog was saddled with that line imploring one to “READ THE FULL BLOG POST” regardless of whether there was more to read or not (Note: These screen shots were taken last evening; the site is now kaput)).

And how about his challenger, the August primary victor, Ned Lamont?

Ned Lamont Campaign Blog

It would seem Lamont’s contract with blog consultant Tim Tagaris ran longer than Allen’s with Jon Henke.

Bob Casey was a big winner — maybe the first-declared Democratic pickup, and his bloggers have kept it up since then, expanding its focus to congratulate other candidates:

Bob Casey Campaign Blog

Too bad the layout is a snore.

Bill Frist may or may not still be running for president, but his blog appears to be still active:

Bill Frist Official Blog

Too bad nothing on the blog he sponsors is necessarily reflective of Frist’s actual opinions. [Whoops. Definitely our bad. See the comments. So, uh, too bad there's no actual blog on the main page?]

James Webb’s campaign blog looks as if it might continue on:

James Webb Campaign Blog

But like Casey’s blog, and Webb and Casey both, it’s a tad on the boring side.

Same goes for newly elected Montana Sen. Jon Tester, Webb’s sort-of-lookalike:

Jon Tester Campaign Blog

Larry Grant did not win his campaign to represent Idaho’s first district:

Larry Grant Campaign Blog

Grant’s campaign was actually more successful than one might expect, winning 45% in very conservative ID 01. Add points for hosting the official campaign blog on Typepad — very bloggy. Subtract points for pretending the official campaign blog was the work of the “grassroots” — not very bloggy.

Mike Bouchard failed to unseat Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, but he did succeed in posting one final message to his official blog:

Mike Bouchard Campaign Blog

So did outgoing Sen. Rick Santorum:

Rick Santorum Campaign Blog

That underlined text? Not links, just emphasis — a staple of this particular campaign site, and no others on this list. Makes you wonder if the blog was written by the same people responsible for his fundraising letters.

Rep. Mark Kennedy lost his Senate bid to Senator-elect Amy Klobuchar, which is why the headline on his latest post will make you do a double-take:

Mark Kennedy Campaign Blog

Note the date and content; Kennedy’s is one of several campaign blogs that seem to have been abandoned prior to the election. But by more than a month? Pathetic.

Another pre-election abandonment, perhaps more surprisingly, was successful Senator-reelect Bob Menendez:

Bob Menendez Campaign Blog

Before Halloween? Not quite pathetic; merely lame.

Ditto re-elected Rep. Jan Schakowsky:

Jan Schakowsky Campaign Blog

Though SchaBLOGsky is a pretty good title, almost as cheesily amusing as Jim Webb’s “WebbLog.”

At least Ohio Gov-elect Ted Strickland managed to keep his staffers blogging into November:

Ted Strickland Campaign Blog

Nice use of Frappr and LiveJournal, too.

And Debbie Stabenow, like Allen, managed to get through to election day — but no further:

Debbie Stabenow Campaign Blog

I submit that failure to post a thank-you note after the campaign’s conclusion is a passive statement of a lack of commitment to engaging the political blogosphere. Maybe most people will never notice, but it can’t leave a good impression on those who do.

Worse, though, is the statement made by the current state of the blog promoting failed House candidate Bill Winter in Colorado:

Bill Winter Campaign Blog

404? Well, at least it’s fitting.

Exit Music For A Campaign

It is only a matter of minutes now before the polls close and BIog P.I. departs for an evening of electoral victory/defeat partying, letting people with a stake in the day’s events this buy our drinks. In the meantime, here are some thoughts before the election returns are returned…

Today’s Wall Street Journal could have coined it the Wonkette Rule:

Two-by-two, polling specialists from ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News and the Associated Press will go into rooms in New York and Washington shortly before noon Tuesday. Their cellphones and BlackBerrys will be confiscated; proctors will monitor the doors; and for the next five hours, these experts will pore over exit-poll data from across the country.

If all goes well, only when they emerge from their cloisters will the legions of ravenous political bloggers have any chance of getting their hands on the earliest indication of which party will end up controlling Congress.

The sidebar does, however, single out Nick Denton’s Beltway gossip sheet in a sidebar (though in 2004 Slate’s Jack Shafer joined Wonkette’s Ana Marie Cox in bravely/shamefully running those numbers early):

WSJ pins early exit poll blame on Wonkette

That’s right, it’s all the bloggers’ fault — and not the reporters who leaked the information to them, nor the reporters who leaked the information to themselves for publishing on the Internet.

These things we know: Exit polls are far from authoritative, and one shouldn’t jump to conclusions based on them. However, there are ways of making that point without being as deliciously hubristic as RNC Research Department:

In 2000, Exit Polling Malfunctioned And Incorrectly Projecting [sic] Vice President Al Gore As The Winner Of The Crucial Battleground State Of Florida.

Well, Yes, And Then Some Other Stuff Happened, Too.

Also of some interest — what Danny Glover did for political blogger/consultants last week, today he does for political blogger/donors. Earlier in the week I extrapolated from his numbers (in some cases perhaps a bit too far) to create charts based on them. Today, why don’t I rank his latest findings in order, from those donating the most to those donating the least? Why not indeed:


Blogger Breakout Total
John Hinderaker, Power Line Mark Kennedy ($2,400); Michelle Bachmann ($2,100) $4,500
Markos Moulitsas, Daily Kos Jim Webb ($1,825); Jon Tester ($1,300); Ciro Rodriguez ($250) $3,375
Hugh Hewitt, TownHall.com Jon Kyl ($2,000); Rick Santorum ($1,000) $3,000
Duncan Black, Atrios Vote Vets ($250); Lois Murphy ($200); Patrick Murphy ($200) $650
Matt Stoller, MyDD Ned Lamont $500
Chris Bowers, MyDD Ned Lamont $250
Stirling Newberry, various Ned Lamont $250

All numbers from Glover’s FEC searches, and as I am guessing he did not run every known political blogger’s name through the system, the list is surely incomplete. But would you have pegged Kos to have donated more than Hewitt? I’m pretty sure I would not.

The next time Blog P.I. is updated, the Washington political world will be turned upside down. Or possibly not. But if I had to wager — and I have made my non-wagering predictions elsewhere —  things are more likely than not to end up sideways.

Steal This Election

It’s not yet clear which party will end up in charge of the House and Senate  — although disclaimers notwithstanding, the prognosis is obviously good for the Dems. But there’s one thing we can be sure of: whoever wins, the other side is going to claim some of the close races were tampered with. Since 2000, the fix is always in, and today may serve as the rightosphere’s first real chance to start yelling about it.

There are a few obvious factors influencing this trend: firstly, everyone seems determined to recapture the spirit of good-natured exuberance that washed over the country in November 2000, but in addition, we’re also now able to read stories from across the country — sometimes sourced and corroborated, sometimes not — establishing that Democrats are shameless crooks. The story that best exemplifies the role of the blogosphere in stoking election-related paranoia is probably this marvellous thing about alleged sabotage of Republican GOTV efforts, which provoked some characteristically level-headed commentary over at Free Republic before turning out to be made up.

Meanwhile, the narrative in the leftosphere remains — as it has for as long as the leftosphere has been in existence — that Republicans are committed to disenfranchising ordinary hard-working Americans. Thus every bit of sleazy electioneering must be termed “voter suppression,” regardless of whether anything is actually being suppressed, while Michael Moore — a man who is to English prose what H.L. Mencken was to documentary filmmaking — continues to uncover nefarious plots at every turn:

They will fight like dogs for the next 24 hours — relentless, unforgiving, nonstop action to squeeze every last conservative voter out of the house on election day. While the rest of us go about our day today, tens of thousands of Republican volunteers are knocking on doors, making phone calls, and lining up rides to the polls.

He almost manages to make it sound sinister, as well as tedious. An anguished cry goes up across the rightosphere: who will be their RFK Jr?

Nice Work If You Can Get It: A Closer Look at Campaign Blogger Remunerations

[Note: This post has been updated; for details, see the end of this post. Thanks to the campaign bloggers who wrote in with updates and corrections.]

Last week Danny Glover, my former colleague at the National Journal Group, went through the FEC reports of candidates for federal office to report just how much their campaigns were paying the bloggers and new media coordinators in their employ.

It was a fascinating and useful article, though it could have used a sidebar or two breaking out the details. Who is the best-paid campaign blogger? Which campaign spent the most? What would these bloggers make if prorated to a yearly salary?

So with the help of Olly Ruff, my capable and mathematically-inclined co-blogger, we’ve done just that. And then some. Before we get started, some disclaimers are in order:

By “prorated salary,” we mean that monthly (approximate) salaries have been prorated to annual salaries; these figures are not meant to indicate the blogger actually made or will make this amount. Jon Henke of QandO, for example, has only been with the Allen campaign for a few months. Likewise, “lump sumps” refer to larger payments made at irregular times. They could be one-off or recurring. These figures are not meant to indicate an annual rate. Unless otherwise noted, numbers are from 2006.

It is also worth remembering that some of these advisers are bloggers, some are more senior advisers, and some are both. Additionally, some advisers may keep other jobs — Daou still does The Daou Report for Salon, but no longer writes commentary there; David All is merely on loan from a similar position with Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA).

Like a poll, this is a snapshot and only a snapshot. We didn’t have the time or resources to go back and look at how long each blogger had actually worked for a given candidate, so the prorated numbers should be taken with a dash of Morton’s. All numbers come from Glover’s piece, and if we haven’t made it clear already, some are approximate.

All right, that should do. Here’s how we’ve broken it down:

After the charts, we’ll share a few notes and observations. Just as you can click on the links above to take you to a specific chart, you can also click here to read those. Let’s go:

    a. By candidate, prorated salary paid (Democrats)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent Jesse Berney; Peter Daou1 $15,600; $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent Laura Packard,
    Aaron Hofman
    $44,400; $26,400
    Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent Alex Armour $38,400
    Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum Jon Jones $33,600
    State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns Andrew Tweeten $31,200
    Sen. Robert Menendez NJ SEN incumbent Scott Shields $34,860 (up from
    starting $30,744)
    Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV open Jesse Taylor $24,600
    Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open Julie Fanselow $15,600
    Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo Aaron Silverstein $10,200

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    b. By candidate, prorated salary paid (Republicans)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent Mindy Finn; Luke Bernstein $52,800; $51,600
    Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open Michael Brodkorb $55,200
    Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent Jon Henke2 $27,600
    Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 (prospective) Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC)

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    c. By candidate, prorated salary paid (combined)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. Rick Santorum
    PA SEN incumbent Mindy Finn; Luke Bernstein $52,800; $51,600
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent Jesse Berney; Peter Daou $15,600; $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent Laura Packard,
    Aaron Hofman
    $44,400; $26,400
    Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open Michael Brodkorb $55,200
    Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent Alex Armour $38,400
    Sen. Robert Menendez NJ SEN incumbent Scott Shields $34,860 (up from
    starting $30,744)
    Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum Jon Jones $33,600
    State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns Andrew Tweeten $31,200
    Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent Jon Henke $27,600
    Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV open Jesse Taylor $24,600
    Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 prospective Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC)
    Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open Julie Fanselow $15,600
    Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo Aaron Silverstein $10,200

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    d. By candidate, lump sum (Democrats)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Rep. Sherrod Brown OH SEN Mike DeWine Jerome Armstrong;
    Tim Tagaris
    $100,000 (2005-2006);
    $17,000 (2005)
    Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen Abraham (Josh) Chernila;
    Lowell Feld
    $7,700; $3,600
    Sen. Jon Corzine NJ GOV ‘05 won Jerome Armstrong;
    Matt Stoller
    $39,000; $31,000
    Ex-Gov. Mark Warner WH’08 withdrawn Jerome Armstrong $65,000
    Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006)
    Cable exec Ned Lamont CT SEN Joe Lieberman Tim Tagaris $21,000 (Jul-Sept 2006)

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    e. By candidate, lump sum (Republicans)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective Patrick Hynes $31,500
    Sheriff Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006)

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    f. By candidate, lump sum (combined)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Rep. Sherrod Brown OH SEN Mike DeWine Jerome Armstrong;
    Tim Tagaris
    $100,000 (2005-2006);
    $17,000 (2005)
    Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen Abraham (Josh) Chernila;
    Lowell Feld
    $77,00; $3,600
    Sen. Jon Corzine NJ GOV ‘05 won Jerome Armstrong;
    Matt Stoller
    $39,000; $31,000
    Ex-Gov. Mark Warner WH’08 withdrawn Jerome Armstrong $65,000
    Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective Patrick Hynes $31,500
    Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006)
    Cable exec Ned Lamont CT SEN Joe Lieberman Tim Tagaris $21,000 (Jul-Sept 2006)
    Sheriff Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006)

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    g. By blogger/adviser, prorated salary (Democrats)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Peter Daou $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Laura Packard $44,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Alex Armour $38,400 Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent
    Scott Shields $34,860 (up from starting
    $30,744)
    Sen. Robert Menendez incumbent
    Jon Jones $33,600 Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum
    Andrew Tweeten $31,200 State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns
    Aaron Hofman $26,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Jesse Taylor $24,600 Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV open
    Jesse Berney $15,600 (by way of HILLPAC) Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Julie Fanselow $15,600 Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open
    Aaron Silverstein $10,200 Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo

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    h. By blogger/adviser, prorated salary (Republicans)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Michael Brodkorb $55,200 Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open
    Mindy Finn $52,800 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Luke Bernstein $51,600 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Jon Henke $27,600 Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent
    Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC) Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 prospective

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    i. By blogger/adviser, prorated salary (combined)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Peter Daou $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Michael Brodkorb $55,200 Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open
    Mindy Finn $52,800 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Luke Bernstein $51,600 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Laura Packard $44,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Alex Armour $38,400 Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent
    Jon Jones $33,600 Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum
    Andrew Tweeten $31,200 State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns
    Aaron Hofman $26,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Scott Shields $34,860 (up from starting
    $30,744)
    Sen. Robert Menendez NJ SEN incumbent
    Jon Henke $27,600 Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent
    Jesse Taylor $24,600 Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV (open)
    Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC) Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 prospective
    Jesse Berney $15,600 (by way of HILLPAC) Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Julie Fanselow $15,600 Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open
    Aaron Silverstein $10,200 Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo

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    j. By blogger/adviser, lump sum (Democrats)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Jerome Armstrong $204,000 Jon Corzine;
    Sherrod Brown;
    Mark Warner
    NJ GOV ‘05 (won);
    OH SEN Mike DeWine;
    WH’08 (withdrawn)
    Abraham (Josh) Chernila $7,700 James Webb VA SEN George Allen
    Tim Tagaris $38,000 (2005-2006) Sherrod Brown;
    Ned Lamont
    OH SEN Mike DeWine;
    CT SEN Joe Lieberman
    Matt Stoller $31,000 Jon Corzine NJ GOV ‘05 open
    Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006) Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent
    Lowell Feld $3,600 James Webb VA SEN George Allen

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    k. By blogger/adviser, lump sum (Republicans)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Patrick Hynes $31,500 Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006) Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow

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    l. By blogger/adviser, lump sum (combined)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Jerome Armstrong $204,000 Sen. Jon Corzine;
    Rep. Sherrod Brown;
    Ex-Gov. Mark Warner
    NJ GOV ‘05 won;
    OH SEN Mike DeWine;
    WH’08 withdrawn
    Abraham (Josh) Chernila $7,700 Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen
    Tim Tagaris $38,000 (2005-2006) Rep. Sherrod Brown; Cable exec Ned Lamont OH SEN Mike DeWine; CT SEN Joe Lieberman
    Patrick Hynes $31,500 Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective
    Matt Stoller $31,000 Sen. Jon Corzine (won) NJ GOV ‘05 open
    Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006) Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006) Sheriff Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow
    Lowell Feld $3,600 Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen

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And now, as promised, some additional thoughts:

  • So, which blogs are they running, anyway? Here’s the list of blogs sponsored by the aforementioned campaigns.
  • Which candidates have hired new media consultants but do not have blogs? They are none other than McCain and Clinton, whose 2008 presidential campaigns have yet to get underway (assuming they both run, which in the latter case is no certainty). Among the campaigns concluded, the only one still active is Mark Warner’s Forward Together Blog; currently it’s giving updates on Warner’s travels campaigning for Jim Webb.
  • Corzine Connection and Sherrod Brown’s Grow Ohio, however, are more than defunct — not only are they no longer online, they cannot be found at the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. nor in Google’s cache.

    Additionally, Corzine was elected to New Jersey’s governorship a year ago, put away the blog with his campaign site then, and for what it’s worth, has battled back from low approval ratings without a presence in the blogosphere. Yet Brown shut down his site not long after announcing for Senate; he understandably shied away from the ’sphere, as it seemed to cause him nothing but headaches.

  • Clearly, and none too surprisingly, Democratic candidates are hiring more bloggers and new media advisers than Republicans. (They are also more enthusiastic about paying in lump sums.) It seems to me that if your party is on the outs, you’re more likely to embrace new methods of reaching people than if you’re already in power and relatively complacent. The exception is if you’re an outsider in your own party (read: McCain), or behind in your own race. Santorum has been spending like there’s no tomorrow (about $11,000/month on bloggers alone) — and in his case, there probably isn’t.

    The only question is why more Republicans didn’t start blogs this time. Well, Allen didn’t until he had no choice, and more than a few vulnerable Republicans this time didn’t find themselves in real trouble until late (Chris Shays), can’t really face up to the scrutiny (Don Sherwood) or both (Curt Weldon).

    Wait for 2008.

  • And it isn’t just Santorum who’s putting down a lot of money. Republicans may have hired fewer bloggers than have Democrats, but on the whole they’re paying them more. This may have something to do with fundraising, and especially the fact that all bloggers listed here are incumbents — even though Rep. Kennedy is running for the Senate, he of course has been in Washington for some time already. But if you’re going to be a Democrat heading off to work for a member of your party, it’s highly advisable that you write for MyDD first.
  • There is sure to be a fallow period after the election; between Nov. 8 and sometime next year, chances are there will be very few candidates employing bloggers — because the only “candidates” will be those mulling a run at the White House.

    But a year from now, the numbers will surely return to this level, and in 2008 it’s highly probable many more bloggers and new media this-or-thats will be working for various incumbents and challengers. Blogging may be well-entrenched in the mediasphere, but politicians have been slower in recognizing their utility.

  • And because we are never entirely above cheap shots here at Blog P.I. there is one additional moral to be divined from these numbers: Astrology works.

What do you think? Any angles we’ve missed? Let us know in the comments.

P.S. I think we knew this would happen:

    1. The most significant update concerns Peter Daou. As Danny Glover corrects at Beltway Blogroll today, Daou draws a $3,750 monthly check from Friends of Hillary in addition to $1,250 from HILLPAC. This moves Hillary Clinton into first place as among Democrats in spending (second overall only to Santorum), and Daou to number one among consultants in terms of compensation.

    Another note: This is in addition to Daou’s consulting for other clients including Media Matters and the AARP, but since we’re just talking about electoral campaigns, we’ll leave them aside. As noted above, these numbers are not meant to be taken as the individual’s total salary.

    2. I’ve added a note to Henke’s name (which Olly had put in but I took out) noting that this number here is almost certainly off. Of course, we might’ve added this to virtually all of the numbers, but Henke being the last-hired among the goup here, there was even less information to go on. Just FYI.

    3. I also goofed and listed SantorumBlog as the official campaign blog. The actual official blog has now replaced it in the list above.

More to come as necessary.

It’s The ____ Stupid!

[Note: I said that Not Paul Begala was not the insider cited below, and indeed, this evening NPB has some thoughts on the exchange himself.]

I liked the fight in the previous post between the Beltway insider and the Deaniac (for the record, Not Paul Begala is Gephardt-affiliated and will always rip on the SWarms instinctively) and I see this as a foreshadow of things to come: Wait till we get to a Congress with everybody taking credit for why we won! It was the ____!

For instance:

  • “It was the netroots that pushed the party…”
  • “It was the moderate stance he/she took that proved he/she was independent…”
  • “It was their position on choice that proved the R was too extreme…”
  • “The cash infusion saved our ass while the RNC was carpertbombing us, thank you Rahm/Schumer, and F you Dean.”
  • “The 50-statere program proved invaluable in gathering volunteers, poll watchers, low dollar donors that made the difference.”
  • “They attacked on the war relentlessly and won, pull out!”

I also can’t wait for all the fights that break out at the Hawk and Dove over the ____ when power-drunk, big-headed staffers who don’t know their asses from a hole in the ground prove their progressive/moderate/strategist mettle.

All while NPB sits back with a knowing smile, sippin’ on gin and juice, laid back, with his mind on the real answer: It was the ____!

Fight, Fight, Fight! Bite, Bite, Bite! The Democratic Beltway Insider & Former Dean Staffer Show!

How exactly Blog P.I. came to be a sounding board for Democratic consultants and party operatives when I am not myself a Democrat, I’m not entirely sure. But this afternoon I bore witness (e-mail witness, that is) to a scintillating debate between two acquaintances who fairly represent the current split between insiders and outsiders of that party.

As the election approaches next week, I thought it would be interesting enough to share their electronic exchanges here. They’ve promised to let me do so as long as I protect their anonymity, and that strikes me as a fair deal. (Just for the record, neither is Not Paul Begala.)

One is a veteran Democratic operative. The other worked for Howard Dean in Vermont. For the purposes of this post, we’ll call them Democratic Beltway Insider and Former Dean Staffer. Will only one survive? Will one trick the other into eating their own liver? Or tie the other’s tongue to a launching spaceship? Read on:

DBI: I know this sounds dumb, but what exactly is the bloggers’ problem with Rahm. He is one of the ONLY democrats who knows how to WIN. Is it because he knocked candidates who had no shot out in the primaries? Puleeze. I think we should have a 3rd party for all these people. The 50 state strategy is a Dean PR sham anyway. In [state redacted], [name redacted] used her 50 state $$ to hire a driver.

FDS: Yes the 50 state strategy is a sham. That’s why suddenly the Dems are competitive in states that 2 years ago all the insiders were saying the Dems should just forget about forever. Admit it, you’re a beltway insider.

Itchy & Scratchy, Beltway Democratic Insider & Former Dean Staffer

DBI: Those races are not in play because Dean gave each state party some allowance money. Those races are in play because organizations like the DLCC, Emilys List and even Move On have been working with state and local candidates for cycles and recruiting. A lot of these races were set up to be competitive totally independent of anything the DNC has done. I may be an insider, but I’ve been around longer than the new DNC people and I remember stuff. Not to mention that Dems haven’t done shit to be competitive other than let the GOP hang themselves – the biggest and best reason that we have races in play that weren’t in 04. Case in point NC08.

FDS: Ok well if those races are competitive because Democratic groups like DLCC and Emily’s List get involved with them, that basically proves the 50-state strategy correct, that by competing everywhere you expand the playing field and give yourself more chances to win. Thank you for proving my point.

DBI: Not really. The DLCC and Emilys List have regional programs they’ve been running for a number of cycles. The DNC is spinning that handing chump change over to state parties is going to revive them – guess again. The reason EL’s plan works is because its not affiliated with the DNC or state parties at all. Talk about insiders and hacks. State operatives are often just small-time crooks.

FDS: Well clearly there is no way I convince you as long as you are have are massively in love with Emily’s list. I simply point to the results:

Pre-Dean: Democrats are a bunch of pansies who refuse to challenge Bush on anything, especially the war in Iraq

Post-Dean: Democrats revitalize their party by trashing Bush, particularly on the war in Iraq, and make the country realize how awful he is, giving Democrats a chance to win in places like Wyoming and Idaho where no one thought they should ever even compete again.

Last I checked Emily’s List has been around for quite a while, I’m not really sure what they did differently in the last three years that totally reversed the political tide in this country. Thank you Howard Dean.

Continue reading ‘Fight, Fight, Fight! Bite, Bite, Bite! The Democratic Beltway Insider & Former Dean Staffer Show!’

Don’t Judge A Facebook…

As any reader of the Drudge Report knows, Virginia Senate candidate James Webb is “under fire” from the George Allen campaign* and pretty much no one else about steamy, even somewhat disturbing passages from Webb’s combat fiction.

Now Webb has set aside writing novels for politics, and by the dictates of modern web campaigning, he can be found in another “book.” That is to say, Facebook. (Thanks, I’ll be here all week.)

Having graduated from college two years before the company was founded, I haven’t been a Facebook user in the past. Only this morning, after getting a tip about the contents of Webb’s account, did I register for an account. So here is the very top of the front page of his profile:

James Webb on Facebook.com

And here’s why I logged in — wouldn’t you like to know what kind of issue/lifestyle groups this possible junior senator from Virginia belongs?

Jim Webb left the group Fuck, Drink, and Smoke someshit.

Jim Webb, meet Jonathan Frist and Julia Corker.

But what of it? As a dispassionate observer, I say not much. It’s not clear to me that Webb intentionally signed up for this group (and others like it, though they are now lost to history (and by history I mean the servers at Facebook HQ)) in the first place and something must be said for the fact that the screen shot I provide is Webb leaving the group.

If someone wanted to press the issue (like maybe a certain current junior senator from Virginia) they probably could, though they’d have to monitor Webb’s Facebook page for longer than I have. And if Webb’s commercial storytelling is relevant to the campaign, why not his social networking?

·      ·      ·

* Even Allen’s new media coordinator Jon Henke, writing at the campaign-sponsored Allen HQ blog, sounds a little non-committal about whether Webb’s fiction is relevant:

Democratic blogger Andy Borowitz said of Scooter Libby’s book, “Read into it what you will.” Whether voters think what Webb has written is relevant or irrelevant, so be it. Nevertheless, it is part and parcel of the public record he has cited, so let the voters judge for themselves.

I’m not sure “Democratic blogger” would be the first description I’d use for Borowitz — to the left of Scrappleface, okay; co-creator of “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air,” sure; a wannabe one-man The Onion, most definitely.

But I digress: Though Henke has taken some lumps for changing his tune to align with his current employer, I think this time he might be doing more than just harmonizing.

Besides giving the Webb library a boost at Amazon, I don’t know what this line of attack accomplished besides making Allen look desperate. If anything, it seems more likely to create a backlash against substance-free negative tactics. Their internal polls must not look very good.

Update: A Republican campaign staffer points out to me that Facebook created pages for every major federal candidate this cycle. Guess who else has one? That’s right: George Allen. But it doesn’t appear that the campaign has done anything with it.