website statistics

Archive for the 'Elections' Category

Dear John

Kerry, that is. (Edwards, you can go about your book tour.)

I’m going to take a moment from my post-election binge drinking and ask you a favor: Don’t run for President. Please.

I know, it’s really not fair, and I feel really bad for you. You raised more money than any Democrat in history, got more votes than any Democrat in history — just 80K from victory Ohio — and parties have typically afforded their nominees a second chance.

But, I have to be more honest with you than I was with that girl I met at the bar last week.

I don’t like you.

Nobody did. We hated George W. Bush. Remember this guy? It wasn’t just funny, it was the truth. We could have nominated a bicycle and it would have gotten 45% against W. (”Vote Bike — Ride the Path to Change in 04!”) So don’t take last time as an example of how people feel about you or how much money you can raise.

You’re boring and vacillatory, which makes it remarkable how often you manage to say something that can get you into trouble. Like that little joke that got you routinely panned by the whole country in about 2 days. Honestly, I’ve heard how scared your staff used to get when you stopped reading from the prepared text.

You are a career Washington politician, and that has a way of sapping the real life out of candidates. You tend to forget what it was like to be inspired by greater things and greater people. You fall in love with your own voice and your ego gets way too big.

We’ve got some big problems we need fixed, and we need someone who will inspire the next generation of Americans. For example, your newfound voice is two years too late and feels contrived. We don’t need more insincerity — we already have Hillary, after all.

But worst of all, you blew it on the war.

Campaigns reflect their candidates, no matter how much we political consultant folks try and tell you guys what to do, you are the ultimate deciders. Your core being — the military service and heroism that defines you most — came under attack, and you resisted the urge to swing back.

Why? Because you were afraid to lay it on the line. You were afraid of losing the presidency. That’s why you voted for the war resolution in the first place. You thought it would help you win the presidency. Conviction is important, John.

And it’s not just these things. We have new people courting us. That Obama fellow is mighty dreamy. We always liked Edwards and we don’t much blame him for what happened in 2004. You, on the other hand… (Another reason we’re pissed? You’re partly responsible for Bush still being in the White House.) And let’s face it, there are quite a few of us who are scared to cross Hillary — those Clintons hold a hell of a grudge, you know.

And I want you to have an honorable legacy. You deserve not only for 20 years of distinguished service in the Senate and for fighting volunteering to fight in Vietnam. You raised a ton of money for Democrats. Emails to your list on behalf of candidates were worth $50K for some candidates. Despite what I said above, your new voice on Iraq is welcome and we need real, responsible people to help us fix the mess. I’d love to see you as a Secretary of State, or some other position that would piss off John McCain.

You have a long, James Baker-like career ahead of you in Washington. Old hands that the country desperately needs in positions where we don’t have to elect you. Hell, Al Gore has become so anti-Washington of late, there’s a vacuum waiting to be filled. Bill Clinton isn’t going to do anything like this, not while there’s political risk in offending people.

So please John, don’t run. We want to like you. Just not as a candidate.

Sincerely, Not Paul Begala

Nice Work If You Can Get It: A Closer Look at Campaign Blogger Remunerations

[Note: This post has been updated; for details, see the end of this post. Thanks to the campaign bloggers who wrote in with updates and corrections.]

Last week Danny Glover, my former colleague at the National Journal Group, went through the FEC reports of candidates for federal office to report just how much their campaigns were paying the bloggers and new media coordinators in their employ.

It was a fascinating and useful article, though it could have used a sidebar or two breaking out the details. Who is the best-paid campaign blogger? Which campaign spent the most? What would these bloggers make if prorated to a yearly salary?

So with the help of Olly Ruff, my capable and mathematically-inclined co-blogger, we’ve done just that. And then some. Before we get started, some disclaimers are in order:

By “prorated salary,” we mean that monthly (approximate) salaries have been prorated to annual salaries; these figures are not meant to indicate the blogger actually made or will make this amount. Jon Henke of QandO, for example, has only been with the Allen campaign for a few months. Likewise, “lump sumps” refer to larger payments made at irregular times. They could be one-off or recurring. These figures are not meant to indicate an annual rate. Unless otherwise noted, numbers are from 2006.

It is also worth remembering that some of these advisers are bloggers, some are more senior advisers, and some are both. Additionally, some advisers may keep other jobs — Daou still does The Daou Report for Salon, but no longer writes commentary there; David All is merely on loan from a similar position with Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA).

Like a poll, this is a snapshot and only a snapshot. We didn’t have the time or resources to go back and look at how long each blogger had actually worked for a given candidate, so the prorated numbers should be taken with a dash of Morton’s. All numbers come from Glover’s piece, and if we haven’t made it clear already, some are approximate.

All right, that should do. Here’s how we’ve broken it down:

After the charts, we’ll share a few notes and observations. Just as you can click on the links above to take you to a specific chart, you can also click here to read those. Let’s go:
    a. By candidate, prorated salary paid (Democrats)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent Jesse Berney; Peter Daou1 $15,600; $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent Laura Packard,
    Aaron Hofman
    $44,400; $26,400
    Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent Alex Armour $38,400
    Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum Jon Jones $33,600
    State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns Andrew Tweeten $31,200
    Sen. Robert Menendez NJ SEN incumbent Scott Shields $34,860 (up from
    starting $30,744)
    Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV open Jesse Taylor $24,600
    Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open Julie Fanselow $15,600
    Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo Aaron Silverstein $10,200
Return to top
    b. By candidate, prorated salary paid (Republicans)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent Mindy Finn; Luke Bernstein $52,800; $51,600
    Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open Michael Brodkorb $55,200
    Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent Jon Henke2 $27,600
    Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 (prospective) Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC)
Return to top
    c. By candidate, prorated salary paid (combined)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent Mindy Finn; Luke Bernstein $52,800; $51,600
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent Jesse Berney; Peter Daou $15,600; $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent Laura Packard,
    Aaron Hofman
    $44,400; $26,400
    Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open Michael Brodkorb $55,200
    Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent Alex Armour $38,400
    Sen. Robert Menendez NJ SEN incumbent Scott Shields $34,860 (up from
    starting $30,744)
    Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum Jon Jones $33,600
    State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns Andrew Tweeten $31,200
    Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent Jon Henke $27,600
    Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV open Jesse Taylor $24,600
    Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 prospective Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC)
    Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open Julie Fanselow $15,600
    Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo Aaron Silverstein $10,200
Return to top

    d. By candidate, lump sum (Democrats)


    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Rep. Sherrod Brown OH SEN Mike DeWine Jerome Armstrong;
    Tim Tagaris
    $100,000 (2005-2006);
    $17,000 (2005)
    Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen Abraham (Josh) Chernila;
    Lowell Feld
    $7,700; $3,600
    Sen. Jon Corzine NJ GOV ‘05 won Jerome Armstrong;
    Matt Stoller
    $39,000; $31,000
    Ex-Gov. Mark Warner WH’08 withdrawn Jerome Armstrong $65,000
    Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006)
    Cable exec Ned Lamont CT SEN Joe Lieberman Tim Tagaris $21,000 (Jul-Sept 2006)
Return to top
    e. By candidate, lump sum (Republicans)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective Patrick Hynes $31,500
    Sheriff Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006)
Return to top
    f. By candidate, lump sum (combined)

    Candidate Campaign Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure
    Rep. Sherrod Brown OH SEN Mike DeWine Jerome Armstrong;
    Tim Tagaris
    $100,000 (2005-2006);
    $17,000 (2005)
    Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen Abraham (Josh) Chernila;
    Lowell Feld
    $77,00; $3,600
    Sen. Jon Corzine NJ GOV ‘05 won Jerome Armstrong;
    Matt Stoller
    $39,000; $31,000
    Ex-Gov. Mark Warner WH’08 withdrawn Jerome Armstrong $65,000
    Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective Patrick Hynes $31,500
    Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006)
    Cable exec Ned Lamont CT SEN Joe Lieberman Tim Tagaris $21,000 (Jul-Sept 2006)
    Sheriff Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006)
Return to top
    g. By blogger/adviser, prorated salary (Democrats)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Peter Daou $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Laura Packard $44,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Alex Armour $38,400 Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent
    Scott Shields $34,860 (up from starting
    $30,744)
    Sen. Robert Menendez incumbent
    Jon Jones $33,600 Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum
    Andrew Tweeten $31,200 State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns
    Aaron Hofman $26,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Jesse Taylor $24,600 Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV open
    Jesse Berney $15,600 (by way of HILLPAC) Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Julie Fanselow $15,600 Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open
    Aaron Silverstein $10,200 Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo
Return to top
    h. By blogger/adviser, prorated salary (Republicans)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Michael Brodkorb $55,200 Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open
    Mindy Finn $52,800 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Luke Bernstein $51,600 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Jon Henke $27,600 Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent
    Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC) Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 prospective
Return to top
    i. By blogger/adviser, prorated salary (combined)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Peter Daou $60,000
    (by way of
    FOH/HILLPAC)
    Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Michael Brodkorb $55,200 Rep. Mark Kennedy MN SEN open
    Mindy Finn $52,800 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Luke Bernstein $51,600 Sen. Rick Santorum PA SEN incumbent
    Laura Packard $44,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Alex Armour $38,400 Rep. Jan Schakowsky IL 09 incumbent
    Jon Jones $33,600 Treas. Bob Casey PA SEN Rick Santorum
    Andrew Tweeten $31,200 State Sen. Jon Tester MT SEN Conrad Burns
    Aaron Hofman $26,400 Sen. Debbie Stabenow MI SEN incumbent
    Scott Shields $34,860 (up from starting
    $30,744)
    Sen. Robert Menendez NJ SEN incumbent
    Jon Henke $27,600 Sen. George Allen VA SEN incumbent
    Jesse Taylor $24,600 Rep. Ted Strickland OH GOV (open)
    Stephen Smith $22,400 (by way of VOLPAC) Sen. Bill Frist WH’08 prospective
    Jesse Berney $15,600 (by way of HILLPAC) Sen. Hillary Clinton NY SEN incumbent
    Julie Fanselow $15,600 Atty Larry Grant ID 01 open
    Aaron Silverstein $10,200 Atty Bill Winter CO 06 Tom Tancredo
Return to top
    j. By blogger/adviser, lump sum (Democrats)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Jerome Armstrong $204,000 Jon Corzine;
    Sherrod Brown;
    Mark Warner
    NJ GOV ‘05 (won);
    OH SEN Mike DeWine;
    WH’08 (withdrawn)
    Abraham (Josh) Chernila $7,700 James Webb VA SEN George Allen
    Tim Tagaris $38,000 (2005-2006) Sherrod Brown;
    Ned Lamont
    OH SEN Mike DeWine;
    CT SEN Joe Lieberman
    Matt Stoller $31,000 Jon Corzine NJ GOV ‘05 open
    Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006) Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent
    Lowell Feld $3,600 James Webb VA SEN George Allen
Return to top
    k. By blogger/adviser, lump sum (Republicans)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Patrick Hynes $31,500 Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006) Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow

Return to top

    l. By blogger/adviser, lump sum (combined)

    Blogger/Adviser Payment/Expenditure Candidate Campaign
    Jerome Armstrong $204,000 Sen. Jon Corzine;
    Rep. Sherrod Brown;
    Ex-Gov. Mark Warner
    NJ GOV ‘05 won;
    OH SEN Mike DeWine;
    WH’08 withdrawn
    Abraham (Josh) Chernila $7,700 Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen
    Tim Tagaris $38,000 (2005-2006) Rep. Sherrod Brown; Cable exec Ned Lamont OH SEN Mike DeWine; CT SEN Joe Lieberman
    Patrick Hynes $31,500 Sen. John McCain WH’08 prospective
    Matt Stoller $31,000 Sen. Jon Corzine (won) NJ GOV ‘05 open
    Dan Gerstein $21,000 (Sept 2006) Sen. Joe Lieberman CT SEN incumbent
    David All $6,468 (Sept 2006) Sheriff Mike Bouchard MI SEN
    Debbie Stabenow
    Lowell Feld $3,600 Ex-Navy Sec. James Webb VA SEN George Allen
Return to top And now, as promised, some additional thoughts:
  • So, which blogs are they running, anyway? Here’s the list of blogs sponsored by the aforementioned campaigns.
  • Which candidates have hired new media consultants but do not have blogs? They are none other than McCain and Clinton, whose 2008 presidential campaigns have yet to get underway (assuming they both run, which in the latter case is no certainty). Among the campaigns concluded, the only one still active is Mark Warner’s Forward Together Blog; currently it’s giving updates on Warner’s travels campaigning for Jim Webb.
  • Corzine Connection and Sherrod Brown’s Grow Ohio, however, are more than defunct — not only are they no longer online, they cannot be found at the Internet Archive’s Wayback Machine. nor in Google’s cache.

    Additionally, Corzine was elected to New Jersey’s governorship a year ago, put away the blog with his campaign site then, and for what it’s worth, has battled back from low approval ratings without a presence in the blogosphere. Yet Brown shut down his site not long after announcing for Senate; he understandably shied away from the ’sphere, as it seemed to cause him nothing but headaches.

  • Clearly, and none too surprisingly, Democratic candidates are hiring more bloggers and new media advisers than Republicans. (They are also more enthusiastic about paying in lump sums.) It seems to me that if your party is on the outs, you’re more likely to embrace new methods of reaching people than if you’re already in power and relatively complacent. The exception is if you’re an outsider in your own party (read: McCain), or behind in your own race. Santorum has been spending like there’s no tomorrow (about $11,000/month on bloggers alone) — and in his case, there probably isn’t.

    The only question is why more Republicans didn’t start blogs this time. Well, Allen didn’t until he had no choice, and more than a few vulnerable Republicans this time didn’t find themselves in real trouble until late (Chris Shays), can’t really face up to the scrutiny (Don Sherwood) or both (Curt Weldon).

    Wait for 2008.

  • And it isn’t just Santorum who’s putting down a lot of money. Republicans may have hired fewer bloggers than have Democrats, but on the whole they’re paying them more. This may have something to do with fundraising, and especially the fact that all bloggers listed here are incumbents — even though Rep. Kennedy is running for the Senate, he of course has been in Washington for some time already. But if you’re going to be a Democrat heading off to work for a member of your party, it’s highly advisable that you write for MyDD first.
  • There is sure to be a fallow period after the election; between Nov. 8 and sometime next year, chances are there will be very few candidates employing bloggers — because the only “candidates” will be those mulling a run at the White House.

    But a year from now, the numbers will surely return to this level, and in 2008 it’s highly probable many more bloggers and new media this-or-thats will be working for various incumbents and challengers. Blogging may be well-entrenched in the mediasphere, but politicians have been slower in recognizing their utility.

  • And because we are never entirely above cheap shots here at Blog P.I. there is one additional moral to be divined from these numbers: Astrology works.

What do you think? Any angles we’ve missed? Let us know in the comments.

P.S. I think we knew this would happen:

    1. The most significant update concerns Peter Daou. As Danny Glover corrects at Beltway Blogroll today, Daou draws a $3,750 monthly check from Friends of Hillary in addition to $1,250 from HILLPAC. This moves Hillary Clinton into first place as among Democrats in spending (second overall only to Santorum), and Daou to number one among consultants in terms of compensation. Another note: This is in addition to Daou’s consulting for other clients including Media Matters and the AARP, but since we’re just talking about electoral campaigns, we’ll leave them aside. As noted above, these numbers are not meant to be taken as the individual’s total salary. 2. I’ve added a note to Henke’s name (which Olly had put in but I took out) noting that this number here is almost certainly off. Of course, we might’ve added this to virtually all of the numbers, but Henke being the last-hired among the goup here, there was even less information to go on. Just FYI. 3. I also goofed and listed SantorumBlog as the official campaign blog. The actual official blog has now replaced it in the list above.

More to come as necessary.

Fight, Fight, Fight! Bite, Bite, Bite! The Democratic Beltway Insider & Former Dean Staffer Show!

How exactly Blog P.I. came to be a sounding board for Democratic consultants and party operatives when I am not myself a Democrat, I’m not entirely sure. But this afternoon I bore witness (e-mail witness, that is) to a scintillating debate between two acquaintances who fairly represent the current split between insiders and outsiders of that party.

As the election approaches next week, I thought it would be interesting enough to share their electronic exchanges here. They’ve promised to let me do so as long as I protect their anonymity, and that strikes me as a fair deal. (Just for the record, neither is Not Paul Begala.)

One is a veteran Democratic operative. The other worked for Howard Dean in Vermont. For the purposes of this post, we’ll call them Democratic Beltway Insider and Former Dean Staffer. Will only one survive? Will one trick the other into eating their own liver? Or tie the other’s tongue to a launching spaceship? Read on:

DBI: I know this sounds dumb, but what exactly is the bloggers’ problem with Rahm. He is one of the ONLY democrats who knows how to WIN. Is it because he knocked candidates who had no shot out in the primaries? Puleeze. I think we should have a 3rd party for all these people. The 50 state strategy is a Dean PR sham anyway. In [state redacted], [name redacted] used her 50 state $$ to hire a driver.

FDS: Yes the 50 state strategy is a sham. That’s why suddenly the Dems are competitive in states that 2 years ago all the insiders were saying the Dems should just forget about forever. Admit it, you’re a beltway insider.

Itchy & Scratchy, Beltway Democratic Insider & Former Dean Staffer
DBI: Those races are not in play because Dean gave each state party some allowance money. Those races are in play because organizations like the DLCC, Emilys List and even Move On have been working with state and local candidates for cycles and recruiting. A lot of these races were set up to be competitive totally independent of anything the DNC has done. I may be an insider, but I’ve been around longer than the new DNC people and I remember stuff. Not to mention that Dems haven’t done shit to be competitive other than let the GOP hang themselves – the biggest and best reason that we have races in play that weren’t in 04. Case in point NC08.

FDS: Ok well if those races are competitive because Democratic groups like DLCC and Emily’s List get involved with them, that basically proves the 50-state strategy correct, that by competing everywhere you expand the playing field and give yourself more chances to win. Thank you for proving my point.

DBI: Not really. The DLCC and Emilys List have regional programs they’ve been running for a number of cycles. The DNC is spinning that handing chump change over to state parties is going to revive them – guess again. The reason EL’s plan works is because its not affiliated with the DNC or state parties at all. Talk about insiders and hacks. State operatives are often just small-time crooks.

FDS: Well clearly there is no way I convince you as long as you are have are massively in love with Emily’s list. I simply point to the results:

Pre-Dean: Democrats are a bunch of pansies who refuse to challenge Bush on anything, especially the war in Iraq

Post-Dean: Democrats revitalize their party by trashing Bush, particularly on the war in Iraq, and make the country realize how awful he is, giving Democrats a chance to win in places like Wyoming and Idaho where no one thought they should ever even compete again.

Last I checked Emily’s List has been around for quite a while, I’m not really sure what they did differently in the last three years that totally reversed the political tide in this country. Thank you Howard Dean.

Continue reading ‘Fight, Fight, Fight! Bite, Bite, Bite! The Democratic Beltway Insider & Former Dean Staffer Show!’

Stabbing Eastward: Lamont, the Netroots and Barack Obama