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Archive for the 'Elections' Category

Orange You Glad It’s Election Day?

Well folks, this is it. After two years of the longest presidential campaign ever — and one hopes it can’t get any longer — the polls are open and people are standing in line all across America. Or, given the early hour, all across the Eastern time zone. And this time around people are doing something they couldn’t the last: posting their thoughts to Twitter via mobile device.

Why do I bring all this up? Because New Media Strategies (where I work and whence I type) has teamed up with Tropicana (the orange juice makers, not the casino resort) to create a Twitter-focused data visualization tool that we’re calling Fresh Squeezed Election Tweets, and just went live a few moments ago at www.anorangeamerica.com:

The site is continuously collecting tweets using the words “Obama” and “McCain”, counting up which other words appear with them — Vote, Election, Country — and other words that appear frequently — Bush, War, Lie (no one said Twitter was fair and balanced) — and representing this frequency by the size of the associated blue-red bubble. The bluer it is, the closer-aligned the keyword is with Obama; the more red, the more it’s McCain. And see the black lines connecting? Those show you which words are used together most: if you mouseover the keywords, you’ll get actual percentages. Did I mention it’s embeddable? I don’t think I did. Here, let me: It’s embeddable.

Is that cool, or what? Feel free to use it in your own posts and check back throughout the day, as the data set changes and perhaps reveals some insight into the day’s events. We might already have a pretty good idea who will be president-elect by day’s end, but Freshly Squeezed Election Tweets may help give a better idea why.

Return of the Smoke-Filled Back Room

My colleague Brian Devine, a good Democrat even though he once sported a Fred Thompson sticker on his car (next to one for Mark Warner), is not enthusiastic about where the fight for his party’s nomination is headed:

The point of all this is that since the primary is so close, one of these two groups composed of the Democratic leadership — the superdelegates or the credentials committee — will be the body that decides who will become the Democratic Party’s 2008 presidential nominee. And not the voters. Prior to today, I believed that the largest flaw in our electoral system was the leapfrogging of states for earlier primary dates. But now it is clear that I was wrong. The Democratic Party can’t get much more undemocratic than not letting the people decide.

There’s more to it than that, and if you’re unfamiliar with the situation he quotes enough to give you the full background.

Meantime, I’m left more than a little amused that the Republican Party nomination process — which features no superdelegates and dealt with its state parties’ “earliest” one-upsmanship in a less extreme manner — is actually more democratic than that of the Democratic Party.

What If They Held a Federal Election and No One Noticed?

Last night Republicans retained two House seats in special elections called to replace members who passed away earlier this year. This morning, Captain Ed led his recap with the observation:

Had the Republicans lost their two special election contests to replace deceased GOP House members, one would see the papers filled with analyses of the coming debacle for Republican hopes in 2008. Now that they have won both handily, expect most to either ignore the races altogether or chalk up the wins to local Republican strength.
Indeed, about the closer-watched Ohio election the Washington Post merely ran an AP story on A02; the Viriginia story ran on B05 in the Metro section. Neither buried, but neither featured. Had Weirauch had won, the anti-Republican mood of ‘06 would seem to be continuing. So it’s kind of funny where the Post chose to cut off the wire report:
But Democrats had high hopes about Weirauch’s chances against the younger Latta. This was her third run for the House, and last year, against Gillmor, she received the biggest share of the vote — 43 percent — of any Democrat in the district’s history.




I noticed the same dearth of barking from the blogs, too. Here’s everything the Memeorandum algorithm deemed significant this morning:

Memeorandum recap of December 2007 special elections

And the whole story was off the page by the beep of twelve.

Daily Kos featured just one recap of the special election, which seemed very bitter even after explaining how the NRCC had spent a big chunk of its cash on hand:

The Republicans are still trying to pretend that 2006 was an aberration. Yet they have to go all-out, it seems, to hold the ground they already have. Yes, I was hoping for a better performance in this district. Yes, I’m disappointed.

Meanwhile, the RNC’s Jason Richardson said nyah in a post for GOP.com and at RedState, focused not on the party committees, but on the extra-party support apparatus:

Weirauch had heavy support from the DCCC, Daily Kos, Act Blue, Nancy Pelosi, Charlie Rangel, Harry Reid, and EMILY’s LIST. We were severely out-manned in Ohio and Virginia and this is what they have to show for it? We came to the game to win. All in all, the liberal blogosphere should take heed: You’re not as powerful as you think and it’s about results not PR.

To be sure, these were retentions and the Virginia election was never much of a contest. But the Ohio race between Republican Bob Latta and Democrat Robin Weirauch was a focal point of both parties in recent weeks, with both parties’ house committees pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the district. Online, Slatecard and Big Red Tent both spotlighted the race and sent out fundraising pleas; Slatecard raised $1,908 from 21 supporters. Meanwhile Weirauch apparently collected more than $93,000 from ActBlue, some $15,600 raised by the Daily Kos/Open Left-backed Blue Majority and $12,300 by Wesley Clark’s WesPAC.

One race was obviously a dud and the other would prove to be one, too. It’s hard to nationalize a special election, and there was no Paul Hackett. In fact, there was barely an Iraq debate — though the Democrat in the Viriginia race, Philip Forgit, was an Iraq veteran. So the leftroots raised more money, but the rightroots (if not Rightroots) ended up with the win. But neither the leftosphere nor rightosphere owns this win or loss. This race just wasn’t won or lost online. And if it was a status quo election, Republicans have to be pleased with that.

Update: I somehow managed to miss Eric Pfeiffer’s understated observation, posted just after the beep-beep of twelve-thirty:

Bloggers Respond With Restraint to Yesterday’s OH/VA Special Elections

At least.

Toward a RedState/Human Events YouTube Debate

RedState and Human Events would do a better job than CNN and YouTube

On Thursday I gave a somewhat-impulsive thumbs-up to RedState’s call for CNN to sack their political director. National Review’s indispensible Jim Geraghty has outlined eight editorial oversights (four quite serious, four merely problematic) in CNN’s vetting of the televised questioners. One or two would be enough to generate a blogswarm, but eight looks like malicious negligence, and it subseqently became a full-fledged blogstorm. Worse, CNN’s statement didn’t even attempt to be a “non-apology apology” — they’re digging in their heels and claiming:

The issues raised during last night’s debate were legitimate and relevant no matter who was asking the questions. The vested interests who are challenging the credibility of the questioners are trying to distract voters from the substantive issues they care most about.

Did somebody say “fake but accurate”? As QandO’s McQ notes, the hubris implicit in that statement is galling:

Says who? Says CNN, that’s who. It is the network that chose the questions that would be aired. Consequently what aired had nothing to do with what voters found to be the substantive issues of the day, but instead had everything to do with — say it with me — what CNN decided were the substantive issues of the day.

I stand by my initial judgement — in fact, I am all the more sure of it — but I realize it isn’t going to happen. (FWIW, CNN’s political director is Sam Feist; one wonders if indie rock/iPod Nano darling Feist could do any worse). And the truth is it wouldn’t make up for the debacle, so I concede that a change is not imperative. What would be better is a pro-active solution — that is, another debate. And so I am very intrigued by a new proposal, this time issued jointly by RedState and Human Events (both subsidiaries of Eagle Pubishing), for a “do-over debate”:

We have a base of readers who represent the Republican wing of the Republican Party. You — and the Republican Party — deserve to face the questions posed by undecided Republicans, not Democratic activists. We will solicit and obtain YouTube videos from those people and vet each questioner to establish that they are — really — undecided Republicans. We hope to include soldiers in the field in Iraq, Young Republicans, and others who still have not decided among you.

Today, allow us to make you this offer: We will organize a debate at a time and date amenable to you all. We will work with a national broadcaster to broadcast the debate as well as offer it online. We, not the liberal drive by media, will ensure the questioners are who they say they are. And we will choose them based on criteria that will be fully disclosed to you all which ensure the questioners aren’t activists for any Democratic candidate.

I think this is a terrific idea. The MSM no longer has a monopoly on campaign coverage, so why should they have a monopoly over organizing candidate debates? The only good answer is because they control the airwaves. Could Fox News be persuaded to air it? Possibly. C-SPAN would certainly set up a camera, it could be simulcast on the web, and it would obviously be made available on YouTube. Heck, put it on the History Channel. I bet more people would watch it.

And if so desired, Google/YouTube (GooTube, if you will) need not formally be involved. Eagle’s online outlets could independently create a YouTube account, put RedState’s Erick Erickson and Human Events’ Jed Babbin in a short video soliciting questions, and anyone could post their videos as responses. Eagle could narrow them down, submit them to a hand-picked group of conservative bloggers to identify the best, and blog readers would be invited to vet the questions themselves. The ultimate decisions should still be made by the organizing consortium, but the crowdsourcing would be a substantial (if not bulletproof) way to head off complaints from conservatives. Necessarily, this would aso give the campaigns time to study the questions and prepare well-thought out answers — this too would be different from the “gotcha” element that annoyed so many in the CNN/YouTube debate.

Of course, the last point hints at the major reason why it wouldn’t happen. Here I’ll note: I cannot formally join the call for such a debate; as I point out whenever relevant, New Media Strategies consults for the Fred Thompson campaign, and I won’t put the campaign or my employer on the spot. Same goes for the other campaigns, though — the Iowa caucuses are now a month away and no campaign should be pressured to join a debate in a time frame this limited. The CNN/YouTube debate required months, not to mention a “Save the Debate” movement by Republican bloggers, to happen at all. So don’t hold your breath, and save your Facebook campaigns. But it’s a terrific idea.

To address another issue: A few commenters on the above-mentioned post here, including some friends of Blog P.I., apparently read my criticism of the debate as a complaint about tough questions. If I understand them correctly, they feared a not-yet-proposed alternative would result in “softball” questions. I replied that they were mistaken, and pointed to a prediction by Patterico following the Democratic CNN/YouTube debate in July:

The Democrat debate was dominated by questioners asking: “Why can’t you be more leftist?” And the Republican debate will be dominated by questioners asking: “Why can’t you be more leftist?”

That pretty much nailed it. The problem is not that the issues CNN is so pleased with itself for raising were illegitimate or unfair. They were not. It’s that those Dem-leaning questions asked by Dem-leaning YouTubers were general election questions, and the general election audience generally (as it were) was not watching. Certainly Republicans should keep an eye toward next November, but a debate for a Republican primary should focus on issues that matter to Republicans. Say what you will, but “don’t ask, don’t tell” just isn’t one of them, and it doesn’t help Republican voters make up their minds. It does no good when Google flies a publicly-identifiable Hillary Clinton supporter in to berate the candidates about their position on the issue. (One which, I would like to point out, is unlikely to be a major factor in the general, either.) In fact, it rises to the level of farce when Anderson Cooper asks said Hillary supporter to rule on whether or not the candidates answered his question and the guy says “no,” yet anyone who was paying attention knows they did answer his question honestly, but he just didn’t like their answers.

True, CNN did air questions about illegal immigration, gun rights and religion. But RedState/Human Events would query those subjects, too. They might even include a question about the Bible that doesn’t conform to slack-jawed yokel stereotypes (sorry, Joseph Dearing, whomever you are, but when you assert that your question tells us “everything we need to know” about the GOP hopefuls, that’s how you come across). Although various writers at RedState and Human Events have evinced support for various candidates (Erickson most notably in favor of Fred Thompson, I can’t help but note), I would argue they have a greater interest than CNN in a strong, fair debate that includes difficult questions for all the candidates, because (as Erickson and Babbin point out) it’s their audience who will be deciding which Republican goes on to the general election.

In short, RedState and Human Events would be better curators of a Republican debate than CNN.

Because I am confident that this do-over debate will not come to pass, I encourage both to organize similar debates for Senate and House candidates, whose primaries mostly will not be decided until further into next year. This would give them time to work out the kinks, gain experience appealing to local television channels for airtime, and give them credibility in proposing such a debate in 2012 (er, 2011, but you know what I mean). I call on Pajamas Media, NRO, Heritage or any other independent, webbish, GOP-leaning organization to do the same. Now that I think about it, I call on Josh Marshall’s TPM empire to do the same for Democrats.

You know what would be awesome next fall, sometime after the conventions and before the general election, Commission on Presidential Debates-permitting? A RedState/Daily Kos YouTube debate.

Mark Halperin’s Imperfect Contrition

The left is having a field day so far this morning with a New York Times opinion piece by Mark Halperin, onetime leader of the ultra-insidery ABC’s The Note and current auteur of Time’s similarly-named The Page. In the piece, Halperin apologizes for treating presidential politics like a horse race, and more or less blames it on Richard Ben Cramer’s famous tome on the 1988 race, “What it Takes.”

Apart from deriving an equivalence between Bill Clinton and George W. Bush that one need not be a member of the leftroots to find inadequate, Halperin dons his finest hairshirt and wails about his years in the wilderness:

For most of my time covering presidential elections, I shared the view that there was a direct correlation between the skills needed to be a great candidate and a great president. The chaotic and demanding requirements of running for president, I felt, were a perfect test for the toughest job in the world.

But now I think I was wrong. The “campaigner equals leader” formula that inspired me and so many others in the news media is flawed.



So if we for too long allowed ourselves to be beguiled by “What It Takes” — certainly not the author’s fault — what do those of us who cover politics do now? After all, Mr. Cramer’s style of campaign coverage is alluring in an election season that features so many candidates with heroic biographies and successful careers in and out of politics. (Not to mention two wide-open races.)

Well, we pause, take a deep breath and resist. At least sometimes. In the face of polls and horse-race maneuvering, we can try to keep from getting sucked in by it all. We should examine a candidate’s public record and full life as opposed to his or her campaign performance. But what might appear simple to a voter can, I know, seem hard for a journalist.

It’s not that he’s wrong (although he might be). Rather, it’s that Halperin is not the person to deliver this message. Otherwise, he will have to change his style of reporting, immediately. What are the chances of that? Well, let’s have a look at what The Page looks like today:

Time's The Page, by Mark Halperin, as vapid as ever

That’s what I thought. In fairness, maybe Mr. Halperin hasn’t figured out what comes next. Until he does, “POW!!! BAM!!!! BOP!!!!” it is.

Chris Beutler’s Day Off

The Lincoln mayoral campaign of former Nebraska state senator Chris Beutler still hasn’t hooked me up with any campaign swag, but congratulations are still due to my surnamesake for winning yesterday’s primary:

Chris Beutler wins the primary, heads to the generalDemocrat Chris Beutler was the top vote-getter in the mayor’s race in unofficial final results from Tuesday’s primary election. The former state senator walked away with 48 percent of the votes, compared to Republican City Councilman Ken Svoboda’s 35 percent. They were trailed by independent candidate Roger Yant with 14 percent, and Nebraska Party candidate Mike Deal at 3 percent. Beutler and Svoboda now advance to the May 1 general election. The winner will replace Coleen Seng, who announced last fall that she would not seek re-election. While the point of the primary was to narrow the field of four to two, Beutler is likely to benefit from his primary win by seeing more campaign donations come his way in the next month. Beutler said the 13-point lead was better than he expected. “It’s a good night,” he said. “The signs have been good, but we didn’t know what would happen for sure. I’m pleasantly surprised.”

My previous offer to stop running his opponent’s press releases in exchange for a yard sign or bumper sticker appears to have been dismissed out of hand, perhaps because I only ran one, and not even in the main body of the post. I now recognize going with the stick may not have been the right approach.

So here’s the carrot: I have in my possession another news report, originally published April 3, titled

“City overpaid Beutler for fundraising work”

Note that I have not linked to it. Why? Maybe because I categorically reject the notion that a Beutler could be overpaid. But also because I hereby denounce it as an election-day smear by the biased (who isn’t?) Journal-Star, which will stop at nothing (it would follow) to carry out its rapacious anti-Beutler agenda (I presume).

We Beutlers must hang together, or we will hang separately (or something like that).

Maybe a campaign button?

I Want to Work for a 527

Ask any campaign guy/gal who has multiple races/cycles under their belt and they’ll tell you that most candidates suck.

They don’t work hard, they meddle too much, they say dumb things on camera or they’re just insane. The real fun is the shadow groups — the 527s and 501(c)3s.

Here’s why:

Why is Americans United for Change is running TV ads against the Senate Minority leader in Kentucky? There’s no way in hell Mitch loses; he’s one of the smartest elected GOP political minds and he can easily raise money. But, that ’s not the point. Campaigning has grown into something completely different than winning and losing single elections: It’s now almost sport.

Back in 2002 a group of rich Democrats and consultants got together and said to themselves, “we want influence.” They created this 527, originally, to protect Social Security from the Republicans’ “privatization.” Now, they still have this 527 and still continue to have influence with their money and with their consultants. Somebody just stood up one day and said, “Let’s rip Mitch’s face off!” for probably no reason except that they can.

And that’s the beauty of this for people like me. No candidate, no pressure to win the race, no worry about the candidate’s wife or best friend telling me how to do my job, no grueling travel days and no limiting contact with pesky reporters. Just a bunch of paid professionals sitting around a table making a couple of rich dudes happy.

Sign me up!

Mayor Beutler… I Like The Sound of That!

I belong to a Facebook group called The Beutlers, dedicated to a family name common in Germany but not so much here in the states. Yet there are obviously enough of us to warrant a Facebook group facilitating the discussion of what it means to be a Beutler. One member, who happens to be a relative of mine and is something of an expert on the subject, explains:

Most of the Beutlers in this country come from the German part of Switzerland, from the little village of Trubschachen, Bern canton. There are a lot of them in Utah and Idaho, and they are Mormon in background, and came to the U.S. in the late 1860’s. I am part of this group, who uniformly pronounce our name Byootler, which is not correct German Swiss, but that’s how we say it. There is another Beutler family who are Polish jews who emigrated in the 1930’s. They all pronounce the name “correctly” as “Boytler”.

In fact, soon piped up another group of Beutlers — the “Bite-lers.” It’s that Beutler clan which has contributed the most notable Beutler that I know of, former Nebraska sate Sen. Chris Beutler (D-Lincoln).

I don’t know much about these Beutlers, although they can’t be all bad: the prospective mayor of Lincoln has a (perfunctory) campaign blog (and a MySpace page); Chris Beutler for Mayor his nephew belongs to The Beutlers on Facebook.

No, I don’t know much about Chris Beutler or the election under way, but I do know one thing: I desperately need some campaign swag. Buttons, yard signs, T-shirts, tote bags. You name it, I want it. The election for Lincoln mayor is May 1, just 46 days away. How do I know this isn’t the last time a candidate bearing my surname runs for an office important enough to generate coffee mugs and bumper stickers?

Listen up, campaign staffers: If I do get some Beutler campaign swag, I promise to blog about that. You can’t buy this kind of online buzz! No, you can only barter for it, and I’m willing to haggle. If you’re in a position to negotiate, send me an e-mail.

P.S. About all I know about the campaign comes from his opponents’ press releases, diligently forwarded to me by a friend covering the race. I’ve included one example below the fold. If I get at least a yard sign, I promise I won’t run any more.

Continue reading ‘Mayor Beutler… I Like The Sound of That!’

Marcotte Polo

Amanda Marcotte’s account of her short stint on the Edwards campaign is up at Salon, and a good read.

“Reasonable people,” I thought, “can tell the difference between a personal blog post and those I’ll write for the campaign.” What I naively failed to understand was that there is no relationship between what reasonable people think and what will be used in a partisan bout of mud-slinging.
This, by the way, from someone who watched a goofy burger-themed parody of “I Am Woman, Hear Me Roar” last year and was moved to write this marvellously overwrought thing. Overall reaction to the Salon piece splits fairly predictably, with some of the choicest parting shots coming from those who have previously been on the receiving end of Marcotte’s legendary reasonableness.

There has been widespread bipartisan blogger sentiment that the Marcotte-McEwan scandal was blown wildly out of proportion, largely because there is also widespread bipartisan blogger sentiment that Bill Donohue is a ludicrous person to whom no political campaign should be paying attention. After minimal exposure to Bill Donohue, it is hard not to sympathize with this to some extent. On the other hand, what credible presidential campaign allows itself to be so successfully mau-maued by his Catholic League of America? (Well, Kerry-Edwards ‘04, for one.)

Moreover, as Bill previously asked, what the hell were Edwards’ people thinking when they hired Marcotte, anyway? Assuming they gave her blog at least a cursory inspection before making the offer, this cannot possibly have come as a surprise to them: the reasons she’s unemployable as a campaign staffer are the same reasons she’s popular and successful as a rabble-rousing blogger. (Then again, if a relatively large constituency on the internet translated proportionately to the real world, then Ron Paul would be a viable presidential candidate.) If any leftish bloggers are still surprised at the feeding frenzy that took place, imagine Michelle Malkin being hired as the online face of the McCain campaign and then claiming that “In Defense of Internment” wasn’t a big deal.

Hopefully, it’s not all bad news for Marcotte: her blogosphere Q rating — in both of the crucial love-her and love-to-hate-her categories — is higher than it was a month ago, and this will presumably open some other doors (as foreshadowed by Michael Bérubé here). She doesn’t have much of a shot at a career in mainstream politics, but that was never really in the cards in the first place.

And sometimes, amidst all the partisan mud-slinging, it’s hard to tell who the reasonable people are anymore.

Can You Digg It?

No, not The Rock — that’s BA-ROCK.

As most readers of Blog P.I. should know, Digg is an Internet phenomenon that drains bandwith by the bucket because of how much traffic it can send to an unsuspecting site which happens to post something the tech world instantly loves. So, this is a pretty big deal:

Obama's announcement on Digg

3800+ diggs (plus 500 comments and counting) is more than I’ve seen for any story about any political candidate, and many more than “internet savvy” John Edwards — to whom, it seems, Diggers have not taken a shine. In fact, in just a few short hours, Obama’s announcement could well become the top political story on Digg over the last 365 days.

But what’s the conventional wisdom? Bloggers don’t like him.

Maybe Diggers just don’t know politics. Read the site long enough, and you’ll notice there is a lot Diggers don’t know. But then again, maybe it’s the bloggers who just don’t digg what everyone else does.

Update: By late Sunday the 21st, the story has just shy of 6,000 diggs and more than 600 comments. That’s nothing compared to the 20,000+ diggs for the announcement of the iPhone, but this is Digg we’re talking about.