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Archive for April, 2007

The Facebook of Virginia Tech

What happened today in Blacksburg, Virginia, surely has many thinking back to the 1999 massacre at Columbine High School. But I am also reminded, in part because I have Hokie co-workers, of the 1998 killings at Thurston High School. Thurston is in Springfield, Oregon, just next door to Eugene, where I was in my freshman year at the University of Oregon.

What was first reported as loud noises soon horrifically became 24 down and three killed, counting the killer’s parents, murdered the night before. Despite my relative proximity to the crime scene, but perhaps not surprisingly, I remember it mostly through the media: The initial radio report whence I’d first heard that “gunshots rang out” at Thurston, then a friend of a friend who was there calling in to CNN’s now-defunct Talkback Live and, much later, Rolling Stone’s in-depth coverage and the Frontline documentary.

One thing we didn’t have was Facebook. Today, students with accounts who couldn’t get through to their family and friends have been using it to let people know they’re all right:

Facebook message from Virginia Tech

In fact, a new group was started today called I’m ok at VT, already with 1,983 members. Remember Virginia Tech (4/16/07) has 1,885. An event concurrent with this very post, Student Gathering at the Drill Field, has 99 confirmed guests. And I’m sure that I’m only scratching the surface.

ABC News has taken notice of the activity, plastering an image (below left) of Facebook on their front page and quoting one registered user (whom I couldn’t locate) taking strong exception to the administration’s handling of the initial murders:

ABC News does Facebook at Virginia TechThey could have prevented most of this…shooting at 730 in WAJ, classes don’t start til 8, why couldn’t they cancel classes for the day … SOMEONE WAS SHOT AND IT TURNS OUT THEY DIED … I THINK THATS GROUNDS TO CANCEL CLASS RATHER THAN SENDING OUT AN EMAIL THAT SAYS USE CAUTION AND REPORT ANYTHING TO POLICE. They could have save almost 20 lives and 20 injuries if they just decided to cancel class right away.

Facebook is a fairly closed system, so I would normally say it wouldn’t become part of the permanent record of this event. But this event is also a criminal investigation, and it’s entirely possible the killer will have an account of his own. Or maybe a MySpace page — he wouldn’t be the first mass killer to have one.

If the rumor is true — originating on the TechSideline.com Hokie fan board (via Hot Air via Dan Riehl) that “this all started with an ex-boyfriend finding his girlfriend in bed with another guy,” would you really be surprised if he’d blogged about it first?

Just the FAQs

Q: Why does Barack Obama’s Answer Center look so familiar?

Obama's Answer Center

A: Because it’s using the same interface as the Washington Post’s Customer Care Center, powered by Right Now Technologies.

Washington Post Customer Care Center

In case you were wondering.

Mr. Romney Goes To GooTube

YouTube's YouChoose '08 Spotlight on Mitt Romney

GoogleTube really appears to be making a go of its YouChoose ‘08 political channel, and this week Mitt Romney became the first participant in the YouTube Spotlight. This basically means the former Massachusetts governor and (depending on the measure) second, third or fourth place candidate for the Republican nomination recorded a short video (at right) asking the YouTube community “What Do You Believe Is America’s Single Greatest Challenge?” and what would you do about it?

This survey of people with webcams was posted Wednesday, April 11, and as of Sunday, April 15, it has been viewed about 285,000 times and picked up 54 video responses. More replies are doubtless on the way [update: yep], and I’d be surprised if anybody watched them all. That job would probably fall to Stephen Smith, and in case he hasn’t sat down and picked through them all yet, I’d like to save him the at least some of the trouble.

I spent a rainy Saturday watching all the videos and took notes about each contribution. Surprisingly, all or nearly all are earnest replies, suggesting the possibility (even probability) that YouTube has removed attempted griefers. Even the Lonelygirl15 wannabe who said “preventing death” was our greatest challenge seems to believe what she’s saying. But they are not all quality, and where appropriate, I have noted the fact. And to those of you who have disabled embedding, come on.

Here’s what I found:


Takes over a minute to actually string together a complete sentence, observes there are “so many challenges”

Jeff Jarvis asks what Romney thinks is the greatest challenge, also asks “which Mitt Romney” he’s asking people to vote for — the “reasonable fellow” from 1994 or the “Mitt Romney we see today”

Checks and balances, reforming education and health care, repairing US image in the world, end Iraq war

Small business owner David All worries about Democrats’ economic policies and Republicans losing support of twentysomething voters

(inaudible)

Coming to an agreement with the religious radicals in Iraq

Protecting our Constitutional rights — free speech, privacy, right to bear arms

America’s reputation abroad

Too many challenges (Iraq, education, health care, energy)

Iraq, Social Security, Medicare, gas prices

Listening to other people, listening to each other

Disappointed two-time Bush voter Bob Hanson: Red vs. blue divide, racial animosity

Getting troops out of Iraq, America’s reputation in the world, health care, homelessness, taxes

Alan from Utah: Education

Lack of vision for the future, better leadership, pessimism in Washington

Would-be Lonelygirl “absurdum00″ says “Death is an incredibly tragic occurence that we must work tirelessly to prevent”

Poverty and education

Education and poverty (see Poverty and education)

Southerner Lee Dean: mass media doesn’t represent average Americans (except maybe Fox News), a dozen others, Part 1 of 3 (10:03)

“Greatest challenge: The restoration of America’s image. Proposed solution: Jumpstart Israeli-Arab negotiations beginning with Syria”

illegal immigration — no amnesty, fixing the visa system

“Answer: gaining a better understanding of the impact our lifestyle has on the world around us”

Schoolteacher: Improving public schools

Ending reliance on fossil fuels, plug for TheOilDrum.com (no sound)

Education (9:51)

Illegal immigration — no amnesty, no work program

Protecting and honoring the rights of the individual, reining in big business

Racism (Don Imus and Sparkling Wiggles)

Justin Hart, Mitt Romney supporter: Politicians’ casual disregard for the people they represent, on the threat of JIhadism and spending in Washington

Keeping the big picture in mind when making decisions, reading “The World is Flat”

Imus getting fired

Adopt the Fair Tax

Focus on domestic issues like poverty and hunger

Getting the U.S. out of the United Nations

More sea to shining sea, less bombs bursting in air (Canadian)

The U.S. should be a “beacon of light and hope in the world”

The Corporate Agenda

???

Takes two minutes to not answer, asks Romney what he thinks (British)

“Keep up the good work, you got my vote, godspeed brother”

Alternative energy, banning lobbying, health care, racial equality, genetically modified foods

Abolishing Corporate Personhood (doesn’t mention Romney by name)

To sum up:

The single greatest challenge facing America today is Iraq, health care, education, fossil fuels, illegal immigration, corporations and Don Imus.

The Benchmark Poll: Leif Larson

Benchmark Poll Logo (small)

Previous Editions
Margie Omero (D)
Jordan Gehrke (R)
Ezra Reese (D)

Leif Larson is a senior vice president at Jamestown Associates, a national political consulting firm, where he advises clients on strategy and oversees print, television and radio production as well as media placement. Past and present clients include Reps. Patrick McHenry, John McHugh, Mary Bono, John Campbell, John Shimkus, College Republicans and the NRCC. His work has been recognized by his peers, earning him a national Pollie award from the American Association of Political Consultants. He graduated from The George Washington University with a BA in Political Science and resides in Alexandria with his wife Janine and their 1 year old son, Angus. He’s also the subject of our latest Benchmark Poll:

How do your parents’ politics compare to your own?

My Dad is very economically conservative and my Mom is very much a social conservative. My Grandmother was very much like P.J. O’Rourke’s in that she was so conservative she wouldn’t even say the word “Democrat” — she just refereed to them as “those bastards.”

Did you run for class office in high school or college? Did you win?

No, I never ran for office while in school. I did support a candidate in college who ran on the platform that if elected student body president he would abolish the student government.

When you first moved to the District, what food did you miss most from home?

In-and-Out Burger! Best burgers in the world. A Double-Double “Animal Style” with fresh fries and a large lemonade….ahhhhhh.

Once you were here, did you work any non-political jobs did you work to get by?

I came out with some money saved up from working some campaigns so I didn’t have to but I had some applications for bartending. Some days I wonder if I wouldn’t have been happier bartending. The guys at Sequoia make a killing!

What’s your favorite bar in DC? Favorite outside the Beltway?

Well this is a little “Old Skool” not sure how many people will remember the “Crow Bar”. What a great place. Depends how far outside the Beltway. I enjoy the Clarendon Ballroom scene but the BEST bar ever was in Santa Barbara, California Jimmy’s Oriental Garden.

Whether in a campaign or in government, you’ve surely had to work with someone who drove you crazy. What were they like?

A former boss of mine. Smart, knowledgeable and good at what he does but he used to have a temper. You never knew if he was going to laugh or freak out on you. I remember him telling a campaign worker, “I’ll see you working in a Tijuana whorehouse before you work in politics again.”

If you had your own blog, what would you call it and what would you write about?

If It Ain’t Scottish It’s CRAP! All things Scottish and Republican Politics.

So, who do you know? That is — who is most responsible for you being where you are in politics now?

Two college professors, Dr. Peter Haslund and Dr. Manoutchehr Eskandari-Qajar.

If you could be or any politician, past or present, for one day and one event, who and what event?

This is a tough one. Winston Churchill was such a statesman and warrior but I would have to go with our own T.R., Teddy Roosevelt the 26th President.

To be him making the decisions to build the Panama Canal and position the United States as one of the worlds super powers would be great.

Where do you see yourself in five years?

Doing what I am doing now but on a beach in California… if my wife will let me!

Yes, But How Many Blogs Are There Really?

October 2004: 4 million blogs
October 2004: 4 million blogs tracked by Technorati

April 2007: 70 million blogs
April 2007: 70 million blogs tracked by Technorati

The latest State of the Blogosphere report from Dave Sifry at Technorati came out last week. He also calls it “State of the Live Web,” which either sounds like he’s trying to get acquired by Microsoft or retiring the word “blogosphere” (don’t tell Bill Quick).

As always, Sifry places great emphasis on how many blogs Technorati is “tracking.” In October 2004, when Sifry first issued his report, it was 4 million. Now it’s 70 million.

In last October’s report — when Blog P.I. analyzed the distribution of blog types in the Technorati Top 100 — it was a mere 57 million.

In that report and (if memory serves) that report alone, Sifry offered a more interesting finding:

About 55% of all blogs are active, which means that they have been updated at least once in the last 3 months.

When you think of how many people have started blogs and then abandoned them, moved from one platform to another, or even kept multiple blogs open for various purposes, 55% is surprisingly high. Regardless, I did the math and concluded that the number of active blogs, using Sifry’s loose definition of “active,” was closer to 33 million.

If we assume that the number is still somewhere around 55%, then there are currently some 38.5 million blogs that meet at least some kind of semi-active status.

Sifry does offer the number of blog postings for particular periods, but he does not specifically include this number in this report — though a German blogger and a French blogger clamor for it in the comments — and he hasn’t previously offered further breakdowns: How many blogs have updated in the past month? Week? 24 hours?

These numbers would tell us a lot more about how big the blogosphere is than the supposedly awe-inspiring but mostly skepticism-inducing count 70 million “tracked.” Yes, we know what Technorati is doing, but since you’re in a position to tell us, how many active blogs are there really?

P.S. Jordan McCullum at Marketing Pilgrim tried crunching the numbers another way:

We know that popular blogs can post multiple times per day, anywhere from 5 to 20—and other active blogs may post only once every few days or once a week. If we took a stab in the dark and said that the average was once every three days (skewed to the right by the high number of “less active” blogs), that would mean that only 4.5 million of the 70 million blogs out there are “active,” or 6%. Seems a bit low, wouldn’t you say?

On any given day? That would be 11.7% of the blogs updated in the past three months. Sounds plausible to me, but only Dave Sifry knows for sure.

The Google Primary II: Buy Your Rivals

Yesterday I managed to get a whole post out of the observation that most, but not all, of the top tier candidates are buying up their own names on Google AdWords. In this post, I’ll try to get some mileage out of reporting something more interesting:

The candidates who are bidding for their own names on Google’s advertising program are also bidding on their opponents’ names.

To take one example, when you search for Mitt Romney on Google, one of the ads you’ll see in the AdWords column along the right-hand side will be for John McCain. So I ran searches for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, and then I compared the results. If the image below hurts your eyes to read, right-click on the image and open a larger version into another browser tab. Here’s what I found, in the order listed:

2008 presidential candidates on Google AdWords

When you run these searches, slightly different ads come up each time. It’s probably in Google’s interest to mix it up some, not to mention a number of advertisers may be bidding the same amount on some of these phrases. Therefore, the image above is only meant to give a general idea of what ads will appear. For example, since I Photoshopped that together last night, I’ve now seen a Giuliani ad appear in a Romney search. It isn’t reflected above, but it has been factored into this post.

Okay, but who all bought who? Here’s whose name/keyword was bought by whom — keyword, then campaigns:

Clinton
Obama
Giuliani
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Giuliani
McCain
McCain
Romney
Giuliani

If you’d rather see who bought whose name as a keyword, try this on for size — campaign, then keywords:

Obama
Clinton
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Giuliani
Hillary

McCain
Romney
McCain
Giuliani

You can probably do all the same armchair analysis here that I can. Obama’s camp believes he can win over Hillary Clinton people (supporters, or those interested enough to Google her name), Romney’s team hopes to win over McCain people, McCain aims to pull support from both his GOP rivals, and the Giuliani squad is on a comparative buying spree, to the point of wooing some Hillary supporters. For some reason, nobody is bidding on either Edwards or Obama.

Meanwhile, in a post seemingly anticipating this one, Oregon Dem consultant Kari Chisholm observed:

The point of a Google ad isn’t to find people who know they’re looking for you — they should be able to find you just fine. It’s to find people who are looking for something else; and your candidate is the answer to their question. This will work even better for the second-tier candidates who aren’t getting much media attention.

I didn’t find any second-tier candidates bidding on the top-tier names, but he’s right: They should be. I also didn’t venture any further than the top six candidates as generally agreed upon by looking at polls, fundraising and what how the Washington Post/New York Times axis treats the various contenders. Another mini-study such as this might turn up some interesting results for other candidates, and other phrases that on which campaigns have bid.

Additionally, election campaigns are not the only customers bidding for higher-placed ads on Google AdWords — they are joined by various for- and not for-profit enterprises, who seek to associate their products and programs with the candidates listed. Here’s what I found, based on the screen caps taken on Saturday night:

  • YouTube — that is, Google — bought everybody. They also bid the most. Hmmm.
  • The Pew Forum, not (yet) owned by Google, was the only other website/organization to bid, and bid high on the words.
  • The Center for American Progress’ Campus Progress bought Obama, and Obama only.
  • Something called Ascend Alliance — which appears to be a student exchange program without the students — has bought Romney, but no one else.
  • The do-gooders do seem to like Romney: the One campaign claims “Romney wears ONE band.” The ONE blog provides evidence, although it could simply be that he held one in his hand.
  • Human Events bought Giuliani and more curiously, Obama as well.
  • Cringe-inducing pro-voting groups have attached themselves to Edwards (generationengage.org), Rudy (declareyourself.org) and Romney (megadittoes).
  • Moviefone and Tickets-for-Events.com are both betting that people mistake John Edwards for John Edward of “Crossing Over” fame (or “fame”).
  • Hillary, Obama, Edwards and Romney all have obviously for-profit concerns bidding on their words — selling buttons and T-shirts, mostly — perhaps saying less about how well they think those candidates will sell than about how the others will not. The market has spoken — and Republicans aren’t moving units so well these days.
  • Hillary, Obama and Romney are all popular enough as keywords that a link at the bottom of their columns will take you to more ads, if you wish.
  • Trouble for Romney: one of the websites bidding on his name is ConservativesAgainstRomney.com. Lucky for Giuliani, sister site ConservativesAgainstRudy.com does not appear to be bidding on his name.
  • On the other hand, the Conservative Book Club appears to have bid on Romney and Romney only, so he should be reassured that not all conservatives are against him.

Anything I missed? Let me know in the comments.

Update: Credit where it’s due: Jeff Jarvis had this idea last week, although we went about it in different ways. Meanwhile, Kate Kaye at the ClickZ News Blog decided to see which candidates had bid on certain issue-related keywords:

iraq war, troop surge, social security, poverty, global warming, climate change, new hampshire, homeland security, terrorism, immigration, us attorneys, alberto gonzales, iran, iran nuclear, nuclear weapons, china trade, trade deficit, wmd, afghanistan, pelosi syria, british sailors, retirement, gay rights, women rights, feminism, labor rights, minimum wage, living wage, abortion, pro life, roe v wade, draft, military draft

So who bought those key words? Apparently none of them.

The Google Primary I: Paying, Or Not Playing

Considering that Google controls just about half of the market for search in the U.S., that Google estimates its advertising network reaches 80% of U.S. Internet users, and that their program is extremely flexible, any political campaign should think strongly about using them. And even though pay-per-click ads are not without risk, this should be all the more true for a presidential campaign.

I’m working on a longer post looking at the 2008 candidates’ use of Google AdWords, but in the meantime, let’s first see who is playing and how they’re playing. Counting only the top six contenders from both parties, here’s what each campaign wants you to see at the top of a Google search results when you search for their name:

Giuliani's Google Sponsored Link

John McCain's Google Sponsored Link

Mitt Romney's Google Sponsored Link

Hillary Clinton's Google Sponsored Link

Barack Obama's Google Sponsored Link

John Edwards' Google Sponsored Link

Hillary has incorporated Blogads into her online strategy and Edwards has been running an online campaign since early 2005, yet neither have bothered to make sure their campaign sites are the top result on Google. (Of course, Google News results do appear beneath the Sponsored Links for the others, but I have cropped them out.) Although Democrats have rushed into Second Life and other brave new worlds, apparently two of their top contenders are ignoring plain old Google.

A few other findings, based on tedious reloading of the same searches, over and over:

  • Obama is indeed playing, but he’s not all in. His ad displays less than half the time — so if you don’t see it, hit reload.
  • For all three Republicans, their Sponsored Link appears almost every time, but not quite.
  • McCain has three different versions of his ad in rotation. Key phrases: “Learn More” and “Sign Up.”
  • Romney also has three versions rotating. Key phrases: “Build a New American Dream” and “Strong. New. Leadership.”
  • Giuliani has just the one pictured above.

More later. Stay tuned.

What the Zell is Going on Here?

Before the ink has even dried on the contract transferring the troubled Tribune Co. media empire to real estate tycoon Samuel Zell, the unremorseful buyer has sent a major sign that he doesn’t understand how web content works. As the Washington Post reports:

In conversations before and after a speech Zell delivered Thursday night at Stanford Law School in Palo Alto, Calif., the billionaire said newspapers could not economically sustain the practice of allowing their articles, photos and other content to be used free by other Internet news aggregators.

“If all of the newspapers in America did not allow Google to steal their content, how profitable would Google be?” Zell said during the question period after his speech. “Not very.”

One wonders if Zell is familiar with the doctrine of fair use. In fact, one wonders if Zell is driving at something else entirely, because these comments make no sense. I have limited sympathy for Viacom’s billion-dollar lawsuit against Google/YouTube, but at least they have a case.

Apparently Zell has never used Google News, because the website doesn’t itself host any of the stories it features — it merely links. Google is “stealing” what, headlines and news photos? They aren’t even hotlinking those images, so the free advertisement doesn’t even cost Zell a cent — but it does give readers a thumbnail view of what to expect if they click through.

To demonstrate, if you run a Google search on the word “Zell” right now, here’s what you’ll find:

Results for "Zell" on Google

Note, Zell is the proud new papa of two of the papers linked above. Google is not depriving him of traffic, but delivering it to him.

If Zell sticks to his guns, I fully expect he’ll demand Google remove his newspapers’ headlines from their aggregator, sue Matt Drudge (who actually does hotlink images) and then set his sights on Google once again when he realizes those damn kids on Blogger are using his excerpts without permission.

At that point, all that’s left is to build a subscription wall around the Tribune Co’s online assets. I can’t wait to sign up for ZellSelect.

Not only does Zell have no idea what he’s talking about, he has no idea what he’s doing. The Internet is a threat to the long term viability of print newspapers for a number of reasons, but newspaper owners’ failure to understand what makes for successful online content will only hasten their slide into irrelevance and unprofitability.

McCain Spaced

To the list of political reporters/editorial teams perpetuating misconceptions about the 2008 online campaign, add Jim Hopkins/USA Today for not recognizing McCainSpace as the social network it is not.

USA Today perpetuates the myth of McCainSpace

The caption is not incorrect: John McCain indeed “urges supporters to create their own pages on his on McCainSpace online community.” But the caption does lead one to believe that there is an “online community” at John McCain’s website, yet even a cursory inspection leads to the conclusion that this belief is unfounded.

The text of Hopkins’ “The 2008 candidates are running ‘e-lection’ campaigns” story makes no mention of the incompetently executed/purposefully deceptive asocial network the McCain campaign continues to foist on its website visitors, which, coincident with that unsufferable headline, leads me to believe the blame in fact lies with USA Today’s editors and not necessarily Hopkins himself.

That said, his name is on the story, and others may not appreciate the division of newsroom labor. So the next time Mr. Hopkins writes about the “e-lection,” I hope he looks a little closer, then makes an effort to edit his editors.

Chris Beutler’s Day Off

The Lincoln mayoral campaign of former Nebraska state senator Chris Beutler still hasn’t hooked me up with any campaign swag, but congratulations are still due to my surnamesake for winning yesterday’s primary:

Chris Beutler wins the primary, heads to the generalDemocrat Chris Beutler was the top vote-getter in the mayor’s race in unofficial final results from Tuesday’s primary election.

The former state senator walked away with 48 percent of the votes, compared to Republican City Councilman Ken Svoboda’s 35 percent.

They were trailed by independent candidate Roger Yant with 14 percent, and Nebraska Party candidate Mike Deal at 3 percent. Beutler and Svoboda now advance to the May 1 general election. The winner will replace Coleen Seng, who announced last fall that she would not seek re-election.

While the point of the primary was to narrow the field of four to two, Beutler is likely to benefit from his primary win by seeing more campaign donations come his way in the next month.

Beutler said the 13-point lead was better than he expected.

“It’s a good night,” he said. “The signs have been good, but we didn’t know what would happen for sure. I’m pleasantly surprised.”

My previous offer to stop running his opponent’s press releases in exchange for a yard sign or bumper sticker appears to have been dismissed out of hand, perhaps because I only ran one, and not even in the main body of the post. I now recognize going with the stick may not have been the right approach.

So here’s the carrot: I have in my possession another news report, originally published April 3, titled

“City overpaid Beutler for fundraising work”

Note that I have not linked to it. Why? Maybe because I categorically reject the notion that a Beutler could be overpaid. But also because I hereby denounce it as an election-day smear by the biased (who isn’t?) Journal-Star, which will stop at nothing (it would follow) to carry out its rapacious anti-Beutler agenda (I presume).

We Beutlers must hang together, or we will hang separately (or something like that).

Maybe a campaign button?